ADEME and CSTB present 4 new prospective scenarios to anticipate possible futures for building and real estate, by 2050

To enable everyone to prepare, ADEME and CSTB have been carrying out foresight work for the past two years which outlines more or less lenient but probable futures for buildings between now and 2050.

They made it possible, within the framework of a consultation with the actors, to develop a toolbox, starting from 22 key factors and ending in 4 scenarios presented on January 25, on the occasion of a dedicated symposium.

As part of the forward-looking approach "Let's imagine tomorrow's buildings together", led by ADEME and CSTB, construction and real estate players were invited to share their points of view on what the buildings in France, by 2050. What will they look like? To what extent will they be able to accommodate human activities? Will the sectors adapt to the new challenges? etc

4 scenarios have thus been developed, taking into account 22 key factors in their evolution, drawing more or less lenient futures, sources of rebalancing or, on the contrary, of disparities:

• Difficult to do everything, or the difficulty for the actors to do everything simultaneously, in the face of major transitions. The park then evolves in a contrasting way, with high-performance buildings, but also a still large number of ill-adapted structures.
• The building as a service, the actors would adapt quickly to the challenges of ecological and demographic transitions. A profound transformation of the building takes place, with, in the city, works, thought of as "services" made available to the occupants.
• Rebalancing(s), in favor of peri-urban areas, medium-sized towns or rural areas. Preserving the environment and anticipating systemic crises are becoming priorities.
• Shortages, or the impact of systemic crises (climatic, economic, health) on the operating capacities of stakeholders (households, businesses, public authorities, etc.).

A forward-looking approach that continues

These 4 scenarios shed valuable initial light on construction and real estate players.

To enable them to go further, the forward-looking action “Let's imagine the buildings of tomorrow together”, strengthened by the very positive reception met and the involvement of the sector in the process, is enriched.

The challenge now is to capitalize on the work already carried out, through 3 axes:

• Support for actors wishing to use the tools created as part of the process, in order to fuel strategic thinking within their organization
• The enrichment and cross-referencing of data, for even more robust and easily declinable scenarios, depending on the activities
• The launch of a complementary collective approach, entitled "Let's imagine building and real estate in the age of the circular economy".

For Arnaud Leroy, President of ADEME: "With the Transition(s) 2050 scenarios and the "Let's imagine the buildings of tomorrow together" Toolbox, we wanted to give each player in the building and real estate sector all the keys to help them better project themselves into the big future changes. This work makes it possible to understand the orders of magnitude of the ecological transition, but also the concrete implications in terms of the evolution of the building and real estate sectors. Don't hesitate to grab it! »

For Etienne Crépon, President of CSTB: “The real estate sector is at the heart of all the transitions and transformations that our society is experiencing and will experience. The collective approach "Let's imagine tomorrow's buildings together" allows us to sketch out possible futures. It is up to us to seize it to anticipate and better prepare for the future. It is in this perspective that this approach will continue: on the strength of this initial work and the research that we have carried out in parallel, we are able to enrich it with a quantitative analysis and deepen it on the question of resources and circular economy. »