Building and real estate: a sector plagued by crises but whose ecological transition is underway

In this context, ADEME publishes the study “The building and real estate sector from crisis to crisis. Analyzes over the period 2020 – 2023”. This takes stock of developments over the last three years of crises and offers a 360° vision of trends in the building and real estate sector. Finally, the study lists the opportunities and threats generated by these years of crises in terms of the ecological transition of buildings.

For Cécile GRACY of ADEME: “If the study was completed before the peak of the new construction crisis, much commented on in recent months, it captured its premises. The testimonies collected from stakeholders in the sector show their questions about the financial model of real estate investments, the reallocation of assets from the tertiary sector to residential, land conversion operations, urban recycling... The ecological transition is becoming a relay for growth to respond to the regulatory framework and demand, provided it has the capacity to implement the necessary technical and organizational innovations (taking into account ZAN, climate risks, biodiversity, etc.). »

Crises as catalysts for an ecological transition approach…

The energy crisis at the start of 2022 has clearly oriented individual and collective behavior towards more sober attitudes. Thus, 55% of households interviewed in winter 2023 declared having lowered the temperature in their home to save energy.

If the inflationary crisis has a downward impact on the work of individuals, they are more oriented towards energy savings. Nearly a quarter of households who maintain their work projects redirect them towards energy renovation measures in order to save money. Finally, the DPE and other energy audits now occupy a central place in the choices of buyers or tenants.

At the same time, the study identifies aspirations in terms of housing including the search for increased autonomy. The do-it-yourself trend has been confirmed. If the involvement of individuals in carrying out more technical and ambitious works is less than for those relating to simple maintenance or beautification of housing, it remains significant on certain work stations. More than 40% of owner-occupiers involved in wall insulation work were involved in their completion, independently or in cooperation with professionals or people around them who had the necessary skills. Concerning equipment, the replacement rate of boilers fell significantly, from 17% to 12% of energy renovation work, between the end of 2022 and the end of 2023, for the benefit of the installation of reversible heat pumps which increased from 9 to 15%. Finally, this study highlights the spectacular development of energy self-consumption following the health crisis. While before 2020 it took four years to reach 100.000 installations in private homes, in the six months following the end of the COVID-19 pandemic, 150.000 installations were recorded.

The 5 trends in building and real estate

• Trends to be boosted: developments favorable to the ecological transition, with strong dynamics over the last 3 years, such as the reduction in office space, the more important place of DPE in household choices or even the adoption of gestures of sobriety;
• Trends to be reinforced: developments favorable to the ecological transition but whose dynamics must be supported. For example, the development of energy self-consumption, reflections on the reversibility of buildings linked to changes in uses or even new entrants into the energy renovation market;
• Trends to support: structuring developments that slow down the ecological transition, such as recruitment tensions, the issue of quality of work as well as social inequalities in the face of housing renovation;
• A trend to observe: with regard to teleworking, a marked development whose impact on the ecological transition is still to be consolidated;
• Trends to watch: developments that are currently weak signals but could prove unfavorable to the ecological transition if they gain momentum, such as the strengthening of peri-urbanization and the development of dual residences.

Stakeholders who must be supported to ensure the sustainability of the ecological transition

The tension on the renovation professions pre-dated the crises and these only made them worse: significant volume of resignations during the COVID-19 period, saturation effect of the energy renovation sector, accompanied by a sudden turnaround in the economic situation for certain segments of the market. So many destabilizing factors, which make the technical and organizational innovation efforts to be deployed to achieve environmental and climate objectives all the more difficult. The rise in skills of the building sector in the field of energy renovation is slow to arrive even though the sector suffers from a lack of attractiveness with professions often undervalued. With 200.000 jobs to be created today to achieve the European objective of efficient renovations of “Fit to 55” by 2030, the renovation sector could become a growth driver for new construction players through integration gradual increase of a greater share of heavy rehabilitation activities and associated energy renovation.

On the demand side, other threats could jeopardize the ambitions of ecological transition, in particular the difficulties of owners from modest categories to bring their housing up to standard to comply with the regulations on sieves classified F and G.

Reducing office space, adapting housing: the effects of teleworking

Although it only concerns a minority of workers, teleworking impacts the management strategies of residential and tertiary buildings. The trend towards reducing office space is already clearly identified: among the organizations with more than 2.000 employees surveyed, more than half are considering it and nearly 1/5 wish to part with more than 30% of their office space. offices.

A previous study[1] by ADEME had shown that in housing, the rebound effect of teleworking was weak because the margins for reducing energy consumption in the event of absence from housing were to date insufficiently exploited. The employer could play a role in reducing energy consumption transferred to the teleworker's home, with the distribution of energy management equipment within the home. More generally, this raises the question of the employer's responsibility for the well-being of its employees who are increasingly working from home. While it avoids certain commuting movements between home and work, teleworking also facilitates installations in peri-urban or rural areas resulting in longer journeys, still without an alternative to the individual vehicle; and may encourage the search for an additional dedicated room in the home. Finally, excessive energy consumption comes in third place among households' negative observations regarding teleworking, after the lack of space and the difficulty of isolating themselves.

[1] The ADEME study on the energy balance of teleworking is available here.

Illustrative image of the article via Depositphotos.com.