Adaptation to climate change: a report attempts to estimate the heavy investments required and the building is on the front line

This research institute has worked on three sectors, which together will require several billion euros per year in new spending in the face of global warming: buildings, land transport, plant agriculture.

Its conclusions were submitted to the Minister of Ecological Transition, Christophe Béchu, who is currently preparing the third National Plan for Adaptation to Climate Change (PNACC-3), based on the hypothesis of a warming of 4°C in France d by the end of the century.

The minister's entourage welcomed on Friday a "very valuable" first draft of the costing, emphasizing "the difficulty of costing the adaptation, since there are a large number of parameters to take into account".

In its report, I4CE estimates that for buildings, additional costs could reach "between +1 and +2,5 billion euros per year for new construction and +4,4 billion euros per year for existing stock ". Enough to adapt the building to heat waves by limiting the use of air conditioning.

Concerning transport, work to adapt the road and rail networks could “require from a few hundred million to a few billion euros per year”.

Finally, agriculture would need "around 1,5 billion euros per year" over the next decade "to deploy on a large scale technical measures to maintain the yields of the main French plant crops".

“Without a more ambitious adaptation policy, the spontaneous reactions that are observed often prove to be the most costly for public finances and already represent several billion euros per year,” note the authors: unorganized installation of air conditioners, repairs at identical transport infrastructure, emergency irrigation and agricultural aid...

“Adaptation will cost money” but “inaction ultimately will always cost more and in all sectors”, we note in the minister's office.

The study does not directly quantify what the "cost of inaction" would be but cites other work which suggests from 5 to more than 20 billion euros per year by 2050.

“It is generally a good thing that there are initial elements of costing. Obviously there are many more than three sectors to explore but that at least gives us a good idea of ​​the overall figures that we will have to tackle” , reacted to AFP Quentin Ghesquière, from the NGO Oxfam.

“This report shows by its orders of magnitude a crying need for adaptation in France” and raises the question of its financing: “there is a financial windfall to be found among the richest and most polluting”, he said. -he pleaded.

Illustrative image of the article via Depositphotos.com.