Greening the economy and society: the ambitious trajectory of the just transition

The transition is a major general interest objective, which ultimately conditions all the others. This is why the notion of just transition, as included in the preamble to the Paris Agreement, means first and foremost that the transition must be made but with concern for those, households and businesses, who will also lose. . A just transition is therefore a transition which accompanies the cessation or transformation of brown, highly emitting or polluting activities inherited from the past, and which develops green activities, while taking into account the vulnerabilities specific to the different components of societies and economies, all in the most democratic way possible. To clarify the concept and explain the current issues in order to inform the public debate on these questions, ADEME presents a dedicated OPINION.

Respond to the climate emergency by supporting the losers from “brown” activities and increasing the number of winners from “green” activities

Macroeconomic studies carried out by ADEME conclude that the overall impact of the transition on employment would be slightly positive in 2050[2]. However, this national assessment includes significant differences between sectors and territories. At the same time, the transition can be slowed by missing skills. ADEME is already observing in 2022 a deficit of around 18.000 full-time equivalent jobs in the three key sectors of the energy transition[3].

Also, just transition public policies involve monitoring, anticipating and supporting the effects of the transition on employment and skills, relying on country-wide planning and social protection. .

At the same time, the tools of production, the material and financial capital of businesses and households can also be devalued by the transition. Public authorities, in France and in Europe, have thus put in place public aid schemes for decarbonization or the acquisition of green assets for companies, households and territories very dependent on fossils.

The investment needs to place us on a trajectory compatible with carbon neutrality are estimated at 66 billion euros annually by 2030, approximately half of which is public investment[4]. These needs can be partially covered by the stimulus effect induced by the transition itself. If it is necessary to release new financial means to green material and financial brown capital, the question of the best financial leverage and the distribution of effort within the entire economy and the entire society will arise. The next 15 years are therefore a difficult transitional period in which brown investments are often more profitable than green investments, which all the more justifies supporting the evolution of activities in the direction of the just transition.

Support the most vulnerable and decide as collectively as possible

For three of the four carbon neutrality scenarios studied by ADEME, the transition would have beneficial effects on the average disposable income of households in 2050. This increase is largely due to the drop in the energy bill and the reduction in the rate unemployment. However, in the short term, transition measures can increase inequalities and difficulties for part of the population. To avoid generating intolerable situations and opposition, it is necessary, at a minimum, to ensure that the transition actions implemented do not lead to aggravation of the situations of the most precarious, discrimination, inequalities or the downgrading of certain categories. Population. The distribution of efforts must therefore be progressive across the entire social spectrum, the contributory capacities of each person being increasingly mobilized according to income and assets.

The feeling of justice in the transition finally depends on the ability to assert one's point of view and one's interests in decision-making. Democratic debate represents the second condition for acceptance of major lifestyle changes by the French (46%) after their equitable nature[5]. At the same time, 64% of French people believe that the democratic system works rather poorly in our country[6]. In this context, the transition represents an opportunity to renew citizen dialogue in France[7].

Guarantee and benefit from the just transition despite turbulence and difficulties

The transition, in addition to limiting future warming and combating economic difficulties and the resulting increase in inequalities, can contribute to the competitiveness, sovereignty, prosperity and democratic vitality of France. However, demanding that the transition only have co-benefits for everyone and all the time would amount to condemning it. It is appropriate to carry out actions that are above all effective from an ecological point of view while implementing other actions which make it possible to compensate for its negative effects or to distribute them in a manner considered equitable. This must be taken into account in a set of public, social, economic and commercial policies and mobilize actors other than those in the climate environment.

Finally, the transition must not be demonized or enchanted in view of its effects on employment, income, social cohesion, confidence in political institutions. The effects of the transition are very real although variable depending on the transition paths or territories. However, they remain relatively unimportant compared to other realities: the energy, financial, health, geostrategic, institutional crises, the tertiarization of economies, their globalization and financialization, the distribution of income and assets, the development of artificial intelligence, fake news, the aging of the population, economic, social, identity and religious tensions, etc. It would be irresponsible to make the transition the scapegoat for the difficulties of today or tomorrow of which it is in no way the main cause.

Toluna Harris Interactive study for ADEME The French and the climate transition

This survey, carried out in January 2024, is based on a sample of 1.066 respondents representative of the French population, aged 18 and over. This study reveals three major lessons:

1. The climate transition is a worrying subject that remains urgent despite economic difficulties:

• 63% of French people (+4 points compared to 2020) say they are worried about the effects of climate change on their current lives and 88% think it is urgent to act (-3 points compared to 2020).

2. To be fair, the French increasingly consider that the transition must rest on the richest households and businesses, without forgetting to also involve the most polluters:

• 51% of French people surveyed (+7 points since 2020) think that only the income of the richest taxpayers should be taxed and 36% (-7 points) that all income should be taxed with a progressive scale.
• 39% (+11 points) consider that only luxury consumer products should be taxed and 51% (-9 points) the products that emit the most greenhouse gases.
• 44% (+6 points) that all profits should be taxed, with a progressive scale, and 44% (-8 points) that only the profits of companies that emit the most greenhouse gases should be taxed.

3. The desire for citizen participation in decision-making:

• 89% of French people surveyed say that it is important that citizens have the opportunity to directly participate in decision-making regarding the climate transition.
• 88% believe that public authorities should necessarily clarify or reverse their decisions, if they go against an advisory opinion given by citizens.

[1] High council for the climate. (2021&2023). Annual report on carbon neutrality. https://www.hautconseilclimat.fr/publications/

[2] Callonnec, G., Gouëdard, H., Jolivet, P. (2022). Macroeconomic effects. Transition 2050. ADEME. https://librairie.ademe.fr/cadic/6940/feuilleton_macroeconomie_transitions2050_ademe.pdf.

[3] ADEME, IN NUMERI. 2023. Markets and jobs contributing to the energy transition in the renewable and recovery energy sectors, land transport and residential building, Situation 2019-2021, Preliminary estimate vs. PPESNBC 2022 objectives. https://librairie.ademe.fr/.

[4] Pisani-Ferry, Mahfouz, S., J., The economic impacts of climate action. France Strategy https://www.strategie.gouv.fr/publications/incidences-economiques-de-laction-climat

[5] OpinionWay for ADEME. (2023). Social representations of climate change. https://librairie.ademe.fr/changement-climatique-et-energie/6706-les-representations-sociales-du-changement-climatique-24eme-vague-du-barometre.html

[6] Cevipof. (2023). Barometer of political confidence wave 14 Behind the social crisis, mistrust remains and always. https://www.sciencespo.fr/cevipof/sites/sciencespo.fr.cevipof/files/Barometre%20de%20la%20confiance%20en%20politique%20-%20vague%2014%20-%20Fevrier%202023%20- %20vFR.pdf%20(1).pdf

[7] Waserman., S. (2024). Adaptation to climate change: a unique opportunity to renew citizen dialogue. Liberation, March 17.