Inflation, growth: senators criticize the government for its "optimistic" forecasts

"In terms of inflation or growth rates, the macroeconomic scenario adopted by the government is imbued with an optimism that is shared neither by the forecasts of the OECD, nor by those of the European Commission", attacked Senator Christian Bilhac (RDSE group) during a debate on the government's roadmap for French public finances until 2027.

"We are not on an average, normal trajectory, we are on top of everything", supported Jérôme Bascher (Les Républicains). The government is "optimistic about growth, very optimistic about inflation and interest rates. All is well in the end and in the end, by a miracle, we manage to drop below 3%" of public deficit, a- he quipped.

"You have decided to base your forecasts on favorable assumptions. The uncertainty around your scenario therefore remains high," said centrist senator Vincent Capo-Canellas.

Present Wednesday evening in the Senate on behalf of the government, the Minister Delegate for Public Accounts Gabriel Attal denied being excessively optimistic.

"I would say that our forecasts are proactive. And I believe that we were right to be proactive in our previous forecasts", judged the minister, citing the example of the growth rate achieved by France in 2022 (2,6 %), despite the doubts expressed by economic analysts when the government had communicated a forecast close to this figure (2,5 then 2,7%).

For 2023, the government expects growth of 1%, higher than that expected by the Banque de France (0,6%) or the International Monetary Fund (0,7%).

In terms of inflation, the executive expects prices to rise 4,9% in 2023 and 2,6% in 2024.

In its opinion on the government's roadmap for public finances, delivered at the end of April, the HCFP argues that the 2023 and 2024 growth forecasts (1,6%) "seem optimistic", even if they are not "out of order". 'achievement".

Similarly, the decline in inflation hoped for by the executive "seems rapid" to the HCFP, guaranteeing the credibility of the trajectory of public finances.