A slight recovery for new housing in the first quarter of 2021 which does not reassure developers

The FPI, bringing together real estate developers in France in housing and commercial real estate, publishes the figures for the 1st quarter of 2021 from its National Statistical Observatory, a barometer of leading indicators in housing in all regions of France, launched in 2010.

In Q1 2021, new home sales are picking up but remain weak

2020 was a bad year for new home sales, with volumes falling by almost a quarter compared to 2019. In the 1st quarter of 2021, they increased by + 12,8% compared to the 1st quarter of 2020, but this inflection should be taken with caution, for three reasons:

The 1st quarter of 2020 was particularly weak (-30% compared to the 1st quarter of 2019)
Volumes for the 1st quarter of 2021 remain lower than those of the 1st quarters of 2017, 2018 and 2019: there is no catching up in sales lost in 2020
The 1st quarter of 2021 benefited from strong momentum in bulk sales (+ 57,1%), which contrasts with the weak rebound in sales to individuals (+ 6,9%), in particular homeownership.

For Alexandra François-Cuxac, President of FPI France: “New home sales increased in the 1st quarter of 2021 compared to the 1st quarter of 2020, but the latter was partly at a standstill. In reality, they only returned to their 2016 level. The weakness of the supply weighed on the volume of sales. "

A supply crisis whose end we do not see

Developers sell less housing not because customers fail them, but because they struggle to produce them, for lack of building permits and land. This is shown by the sales figure, which is stagnant (+ 0,9% compared to the 1st quarter of 2020), with the result of a commercial offer reduced to 80.000 homes (almost 10.000 less than in the 1st quarter of 2020). ), its lowest level since 2012.

This early shortage is to be seen against the evolution of building permits: in the collective, local authorities issued 15,2% less in the 1st quarter of 2021 than in the 1st quarter of 2020 (however affected by the first quarter of 24,5). confinement), and 12% less over the last 12 months than over the previous XNUMX months.

For Alexandra François-Cuxac, President of FPI France: “We are witnessing a vertiginous drop in new construction with nearly 25% drop in the granting of building permits over 12 months in the collective. It is a whole sector which is in difficulty whereas it could be a formidable vector of economic growth, social progress and sustainable development. Governments must stop this crisis at all costs before it wreaks havoc for years to come. "