The OECD raises its global growth forecast for 2024, thanks in particular to the United States

The OECD on Thursday, May 2, raised its forecast for global growth in 2024 to 3,1% compared to 2,9% during its last projections in February, supported in particular by the dynamism of the recovery in the United States, while the Eurozone remains behind.

“A cautious optimism has begun to spread across the global economy,” said the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development in a quarterly report, which points to the sharp disparity between countries based on the decline in inflation, reductions in interest rates practiced, and “more or less significant budgetary consolidation needs”.

The United States thus sees its growth forecast for 2024 raised to 2,6% in 2024 (compared to 2,1% previously expected), after 2,5% last year. Among the positive points, the OECD notes the decline in inflation in 2023, which remains on a downward trajectory, “albeit at a modest pace”.

For its part, Chinese growth remains even higher, rising to 4,9% in 2024 (compared to 4,7% previously expected), notably via an expansionary budgetary policy.

The situation is different for the euro zone. The OECD expects growth to increase slightly to 0,7% (compared to 0,6% previously expected), i.e. still very moderate progress. It nevertheless anticipates a rebound to 1,5% in 2025 (compared to 1,3% expected in previous forecasts in February), thanks to the recovery in domestic demand.

“Wage increases in tight labor markets and growth in real incomes, in a context of falling inflation, will stimulate private consumption,” underlines the OECD.

The latter also pleads for a “prudent” budgetary policy, “necessary in order to restore budgetary room for maneuver and complete the gradual easing of the stance of monetary policy as inflation returns towards the objective” .

Germany, one of the region's heavyweights, saw its growth forecast lowered to 0,2% for 2024 (0,3% previously expected). Conversely, the OECD raised its growth forecast for 2024 for France, increasing it to 0,7% compared to 0,6% announced in February, estimating that "private consumption should strengthen" thanks to drop in inflation.

In the United Kingdom, growth is expected to rise to 0,4% in 2024 and 1% in 2025, estimates lower than what was expected in February. This more modest recovery is attributable in particular to the persistence of inflation in 2024, according to the report.

Finally, the OECD believes that high geopolitical tensions continue to pose a risk to the economy in the short term, "especially if ongoing conflicts in the Middle East were to intensify and cause disruptions in energy markets and financial, accentuating inflation and slowing growth.