INSEE will unveil the extent of the rebound in the economy in the third quarter on Friday, before the relapse

In its latest economic report, published in early October, INSEE estimated the extent of the rebound in gross domestic product (GDP) between July and September at + 16%, after the historic drop of 13,8% in the second quarter, marked by confinement.

"We had a positive surprise at the end of confinement. Consumption rebounded faster than in other European countries. This is what gave us hope" on the recovery, advance with AFP Selin Ozyurt, economist at Euler Hermes.

Boosted by vacations, measures to preserve purchasing power, or even the premium for the purchase of vehicles, household consumption indeed drove growth in the third quarter.

“Alongside this, the manufacturing sector has resumed more dynamically,” adds Charlotte de Montpellier, economist for the bank ING.

The recovery in activity has affected all sectors, even if the level of activity "still remains much lower than that which prevailed before the crisis", she adds, by around 5% at the end of September.

This forecast by INSEE for the third quarter is the same as that made by the Banque de France in mid-September. But it is lower than the rebound of 19% that the Institute previously anticipated.

Because since the start of the school year, the climate has darkened on the health front, with an increase in contaminations, and the month of September was not as good as hoped.

During the summer, "we were talking about a recovery in the form of V, U, and there was this confidence which returned", an optimism completely abandoned now, advance Selin Ozyurt.

While the business climate compiled by INSEE, which testifies to corporate morale, continued to improve in September, this improvement has indeed subsided in the face of uncertainties about the development of the health situation and its repercussions on the economy.

The indicator for assessing activity in the private sector published by the firm IHS Markit had relapsed in September, a first since deconfinement, especially in services.

And it fell again in October, as did consumer sentiment according to data released Wednesday by INSEE.

"back to reality"

"After a summer that brought some optimism, September heralded a return to reality, and the worsening outlook called into question future plans, whether for businesses for their investments and for households on the move. term of consumption behavior ", details Charlotte de Montpellier.

And while the government counted on this rebound in the third quarter and on the announcement of the recovery plan of 100 billion euros over two years to restore prospects to businesses and households, the arrival of the second epidemic wave has ruined his hopes.

Curfews, activity restrictions and threat of re-containment, even partial: the end of the year promises to be difficult for the economy.

"Growth will be negative in the fourth quarter," Economy Minister Bruno Le Maire warned on Tuesday, while maintaining his forecast of a 10% GDP contraction over the year.

INSEE expects it for the moment on a fall of 9%, with a stability of the activity in the last quarter. But "it was before the new announcements of restrictions," recalled last week its managing director, Jean-Luc Tavernier, suggesting that a downward revision was possible.

"We now know that health constraints will continue to hamper the course of business for several more quarters," said Olivier Passet, director of economic summaries of the Xerfi cabinet, in a note published on Monday.

The government, which has already extended and strengthened some aid, expects to have to do even more. But without giving up at the same time the recovery plan, assured Bruno Le Maire.