Three good news for the climate since the Paris agreement

Between 0,6°C and 1°C less warming

In 2015, when the Paris Agreement was approved at COP21, the economic policies of nations put the world on a trajectory of climate warming by 2100 of 3,5°C compared to the pre-industrial era, estimated at the time the International Energy Agency (IEA). A level synonymous with chain climatic cataclysms (unlivable regions due to extreme heat and drought, melting of the poles, glaciers and permafrost, etc.).

But eight years later, countries' current commitments place the world on a warming trajectory of 2,5° to 2,9°C over the century, according to UN calculations unveiled on the eve of COP28.

And for the IEA, planned energy policies around the world even correspond to a trajectory of +2,4°C by 2100.

Peak emissions before 2025

Since 2015, annual greenhouse gas emissions have increased by around 9% according to the UN. This is less than what was planned before Paris.

The rate of increase has slowed significantly, to the point that the peak of global emissions could be reached as early as 2024, or even 2023, the Climate Analytics Institute recently estimated. This is in line with the scenario recommended by the IPCC, the climate experts mandated by the UN, to meet the Paris objectives.

Before the Paris Agreement, the IEA predicted that emissions linked to the energy sector (more than 80% of CO2 emitted by human activity) would reach 43 billion tonnes (Gt) in 2030, but it has just revise this figure significantly downwards, to 35 Gt.

“This difference of 7,5 Gt corresponds to the cumulative emissions from the energy sector in the United States and Europe,” underlines the IEA in the latest update of its “Net Zero Roadmap” report.

Renewables and the electric car

“Three technologies contribute to the majority of emissions reductions” between 2015 projections and current ones, says the IEA: “solar, wind and electric vehicles”.

Compared to forecasts made in 2015 for 2030, "photovoltaics should contribute to reducing emissions by around 3 Gt, or roughly the equivalent of the annual emissions from global automobile traffic", calculates this OECD agency.

Photovoltaics and wind power are used to replace coal, oil and gas power plants. It is now estimated that in 2030 they will represent around 15% of global electricity production, or around 3 and 7 times more at this date than what IEA experts predicted in 2015.

At the time, the deployment of electric cars seemed like a pipe dream at such a short notice, with less than 2% of sales forecast for 2030. Now, the IEA estimates that more than a third of new cars by that date will have swapped the engine to explosion against electric traction.

And progress is not slowing down: “The adoption of clean energy technologies has experienced unprecedented growth over the last two years,” welcomes the IEA, which notes a 50% increase in global photovoltaic capacities since 2020 and 240 % for electric vehicle sales.

The IEA attributes this progress, unthinkable before the Paris Agreement, to the effect of public policies and falling costs.

Thus, in China, “successive plans over 5 years have gradually raised ambitions for photovoltaics and led to a global decline in costs”.

In Europe, the deployment of offshore wind power "gave the global kickoff for this industry", while electric two-wheelers or buses have experienced "significant growth in India and other emerging economies ", quotes the IEA.