How is the purchasing power of the French in new real estate evolving?

In a few months, in the 10 large cities studied, the trend in rates was reversed, restoring purchasing power to households.

On the other hand, several large cities, such as Lille, have sales prices that are starting to rise again.

The purchasing power of new property: from what monthly payment can you become the owner of a 3-room new property?

Continue to benefit from price drops

Like Montpellier, new property prices in several large cities have increased again since our last barometer. Thus, the average price of a new three-room apartment in the capital of Hérault rebounded by around 1% in less than six months. This also increases in Lyon, Nice, Marseille and especially in Lille: + 11%. The offer is so reduced that certain high-end operations significantly increase the average.

Same dynamic in Paris, a niche market, where prices have been on an upward trend for more than a year now, reaching €839.000 per Q3, + 3% since November.

Conversely, some cities are finally recording a decline in prices, for example in Strasbourg where the average price of a three-room apartment has fallen by almost 2%. Ditto in Toulouse where the drop is beyond 5%, which allows it to regain its title of most affordable large city, to the detriment of Lille. Prices are also stabilizing in Bordeaux.

For Céline Coletto, spokesperson for Find-un-logement-neuf.com: “While some large cities have experienced recent price increases, they still remain below the levels recorded a year ago. This is the case in Lyon, Nice, Montpellier. Without forgetting Nantes which has posted one of the biggest declines since the fall: beyond 5% but also for more than a year with an annual decline of almost 12%. We must not miss these opportunities. »

According to the latest figures from Find-un-logement-neuf.com, at the national level, in this real estate spring, there are still declines in 1 in 2 cities in the most active localities in terms of real estate development .

The fall in mortgage rates, finally good news for borrowers

For the first time in 2 years, rates are falling in all cities. The reduction, however, varies depending on the sector: from 25 basis points in Nantes to 65 basis points in Lille. In March, over 20 years, the average rate (excluding negotiations) varies depending on the cities studied between 3,9% and 4% but with significant differences between banks: on average 70 basis points.

For Cécile Roquelaure, director of studies at Empruntis: “The relative stability of the 10-year OAT between 2.5 and 3% for a little over 3 months, the sharp slowdown in the transaction market and the necessary capture of new clients by the banks are pushing the latter to offer the best possible conditions for attract aspiring purchasers. Banks have therefore lowered their rates but also support buyers with subsidized or even zero-rate loans in order to increase purchasing capacity. »

In 8 out of 10 cities, the monthly payment fell for the first time since March 2021. On that date, the drop in credit rates had increased purchasing power in 6 out of 10 cities (in the others, the rise in prices had annihilated Gain).

For example, for €1.000 of monthly credit payments excluding insurance:

New real estate purchasing power is regaining color

Prices are falling in 4 out of 10 large cities: Toulouse, Nantes, and to a lesser extent, for Strasbourg and Bordeaux it is the thickness of the line. In conjunction with the favorable evolution of credit rates, the French will regain purchasing power between November 2023 and March 2024. Although this remains insufficient, this is the first positive sign on the real estate market in several years !

With the exception of Lille and Paris, households everywhere are seeing their housing bills drop! With an average of -3% across the 10 large cities, we are far from previous average increases: +14% in November 2023, +9% in February 2023, +12% in October 2022...

In detail, the monthly mortgage payments (excluding insurance) over 20 years are between €1.763 in Toulouse and €5.084 in Paris.

It is in Lille that we note the largest increase in the monthly budget dedicated to real estate purchases: +6.65%. This translates into a monthly payment of €2.078 compared to €1.948 last November, or €130 more.

Next, come in order:

• Paris +0.9%, i.e. a monthly payment of €5.084,4
• Nice -0.22% or a monthly payment of €2.435,4
• Montpellier -2.74% or a monthly payment of €1.915.2
• Lyon -2,88% or a monthly payment of €2.407,2
• Bordeaux -3,18% or a monthly payment of €2.152,8
• Marseille -4,11%, i.e. a monthly payment of €2.004
• Strasbourg -7,01% or a monthly payment of €1.935
• Nantes -7,04% or a monthly payment of €1.980,6
• Toulouse -9,85% or a monthly payment of €1.763,4

What are the short-term prospects?

For Cécile Roquelaure, director of studies at Empruntis: “The banks are very proactive and although they are still limited by the HCSF, they are doing everything they can to support the market recovery and this should continue all year because the start is “soft”. The ECB's policy should facilitate the granting of financing but this will be late to benefit 2024 buyers, most of whom we know are positioned before the summer. For those who wait, conditions should improve further, and for those who take the plunge, they will still be able to benefit from more favorable conditions if they become so during a renegotiation. »

For Céline Coletto for Find-un-logement-neuf.com: “Associated with the drop in rates, the period remains favorable for buyers. They are the ones who have the upper hand in a real estate development market that is still in difficulty. Beyond the displayed price which continues to fall in half of the cities in France, it is still possible to benefit from additional offers and other commercial discounts. With the new PTZ formula arriving, some buyers have every interest in turning to new property to become owners. »

Methodology

Simulations carried out on the basis of average rates (excluding insurance) recorded on March 18, 2024 and the price of a three-room apartment recorded in March 2024 on the site Find-un-logement-neuf.com.

Please note: the new barometer was carried out until its February 2023 edition on the lowest rates on the scale of at least one bank. Due to the criteria applied by the banks, it was chosen, for a more transparent approach, to carry out the simulations using average rates. The calculations have been updated with these rates for the month of February to allow a comparison on a consistent basis.

Illustrative image of the article via Depositphotos.com.