Paris: Airbnb, vacant housing… will sanctions be enough to solve the rental crisis?

But on the ground, the equation is far from simple. Between the perception of rental risk, the technical obstacles of the DPE, the renovation costs and the low natural turnover of the Parisian housing stock, the question arises: will these regulatory and fiscal levers be enough to unblock a structurally strained market?

1. What will happen to the targeted tourist accommodations?

Faced with increased controls, landlords operating furnished tourist accommodations will not automatically switch to the standard 3-year lease. Several scenarios are emerging in the market:

Keeping rentals below the 90-day limit: For primary residences, Parisian regulations allow rentals of up to 90 days per year. Many owners will choose to retain this additional seasonal income before leaving the property unoccupied or reserved for personal use for the rest of the year.

The shift towards medium-term rentals (Mobility Lease): Designed for students, interns, or professionals on assignment for a period of 1 to 10 months, the Mobility Lease offers a flexible alternative. It allows tenants to bypass the regulations governing furnished tourist rentals while avoiding the rigidity of a primary residence lease.

Arbitration towards sale or classic lease: A fraction of landlords will choose to return to the common law lease or put the property back on sale to reallocate their capital.

The specialist's analysis: Even if part of this stock returns to long-term rental, the volume will remain very marginal in view of the scale of the shortage in Paris.

2. Vacant housing: owners want reassurance, not just taxation

The tax on vacant residential properties is being stepped up. The City of Paris aims to bring approximately 20.000 long-term unoccupied homes back onto the market.

In concrete terms, in the modeled example for a 30 m² apartment in the 17th arrondissement, the tax of approximately €790 will increase to nearly €1.400 in 2027 (rate at 30%), then to €2.800 in 2028 (rate at 60%).

Even if the tax burden becomes significant, it does not remove the fundamental obstacles for homeowners:

Perception of the risk of non-payment: For a landlord who has repaid their loan, the risk of a long eviction procedure or damage often weighs more heavily in the decision than the cost of the surcharge.

The technical and financial impasse of the Energy Performance Certificate (EPC): Renovating an old property in a Parisian co-ownership can sometimes be a real headache. Interior insulation reduces an already small living space, and votes on comprehensive renovations are blocked at the General Meeting: investing €15.000 to €25.000 in a market with regulated rents is not always an economically viable calculation.

Regulatory instability: Between changes in the DPE schedule, revisions to calculation methods for small areas and tax changes, many landlords are adopting a wait-and-see approach.

Although the City offers support and guarantee schemes to encourage rentals, punitive taxation does not resolve the technical complexity of renovation or the legal insecurity felt by landlords.

3. The complete breakdown of rental turnover

The current crisis is not solely explained by a lack of supply, but by a drastic drop in residential mobility.

Paris is a historically built-up city, where the net creation of new housing within the city limits is virtually nonexistent. The market must contend with its existing housing stock. However, the housing supply chain is blocked:

Lock-in effect of homeownership: Faced with interest rate levels and down payment requirements, tenant households who should have bought remain in their homes.

Drastic selection of applications: For the few properties put back on the rental market, the overabundance of applications pushes landlords to demand maximum guarantees, creating paradoxical situations where buying sometimes proves to be more administratively accessible than renting.

4. What solutions exist for creating a sustainable supply in Paris?

To address the crisis, public action and market players must focus their efforts on transforming existing buildings and streamlining traffic flow:

The conversion of office space: The transformation of obsolete offices into housing constitutes the main source of square meters in the capital, provided that urban planning procedures are simplified and the technical complexity of these operations is overcome.

Making social and intermediate housing more fluid: Increasing turnover in social housing through pathways to intermediate housing would free up opportunities for low-income households.

Securing and incentivizing private landlords: Supporting the energy renovation of co-owned properties and offering a secure rental framework are essential prerequisites to restore confidence to investor owners.

Extension and restructuring: Maximizing the usable density of existing buildings by extending buildings upwards and converting attics or commercial premises into ground floor space.

Opinion piece by Nicolas Jeff, Real Estate Agent ( LinkedIn ).