For onshore wind power, the official target of 24,1 gigawatts (GW) of installed capacity which had been set in 2020 for the end of 2023 "will not be achieved", the country barely reaching 20 GW at the end of September 2022.
"The current progress is not in line with the pace required by the multiannual energy program" over the period 2019-2023, notes this reference report which points to the administrative complexity, the spatial constraint or the lack of "acceptability" of projects.
On the photovoltaic side, despite a rebound in 2021 "partially confirmed in 2022", the jump comes late and "the sector is still not on the right trajectory".
France had 15,8 GW of solar capacity in September 2022 and could reach 19 GW at the end of 2023. It would miss the 20,1 GW expected, and, at this rate, would move further and further away from the ambitions already set for 2028 (between 35 and 44 GW), according to this annual barometer carried out in partnership with the Federation of FNCCR communities and Ademe, the ecological transition agency.
"The electricity supply crisis, exacerbated by the conflict in Eastern Europe, has revealed a general awareness of the need for national energy independence", emphasizes Pascal Sokoloff, director general of the FNCCR.
However, this edition of the barometer "once again demonstrates the gap between stated ambitions, declarations and the reality on the ground", he laments.
Today, more than 15 GW of projects ready to materialize are blocked awaiting validation from the State services, according to Ademe.
500 million euros fine
This observation comes at a time when Parliament is debating a bill to speed up administrative procedures to facilitate the deployment of renewable energies.
The current content of the text is greeted with circumspection by the actors, who fear on the contrary a complexification and rather place their hopes in a government instruction of acceleration recently transmitted to the prefects.
"The vote on this law shows the path that remains to be done: in 2022, we could expect more ambition in the French Parliament", regretted Tuesday Vincent Jacques Le Seigneur, president of Observ'ER, which publishes the barometer based on official figures (EDF, Enedis, etc.).
This year, Parliament will also have to define, at the earliest this summer, the new national energy objectives for 2033, against the backdrop of the fight against global warming and increased electricity needs.
However, all the projections on carbon neutrality promised in 2050 show that, nuclear revival or not, electric renewables will have to be deployed massively, to represent at least 50% of the total.
Added to this are European bonds. “We are not on the right pace to achieve both the objectives we have set ourselves and those we have inscribed in European marble in December 2022”, underlines Mr. Jacques Le Seigneur.
France has already been fined 500 million euros for not respecting its commitment in 2020 to reach 27% of electricity from renewable sources. According to the latest figures, it still does not succeed, reaching just 24,2% at the end of 2021.
At the end of 2022, the country had approximately 66 GW of total renewable electricity capacity, divided between 40% for hydraulics (dams), 31% for onshore wind power and 24% for photovoltaics.