Why Macron could return to pension reform

A yes in principle

"The question is not if, but when", recently declared the head of state in the Council of Ministers. For several weeks, he has been preparing the opinion. At the beginning of June, in the Lot, he warned that he would have to make "difficult decisions" this summer so that the last year of the five-year term is "useful". "A pension reform is essential," he repeated Monday in front of the big bosses.

Why?

Economic argument: the system is in deficit, with a financing need of 7 to 10 billion euros per year. Systemic argument: the French must work "progressively longer", repeated former Prime Minister Edouard Philippe. Political argument: if Emmanuel Macron managed to get a pension reform voted before the 2022 presidential election, "he would put in the trap a part of the right who wanted this reform" and "we can say that he will have taken his risk ", adds a framework of the macronie.

What reform?

Before 2020, Emmanuel Macron advocated a total overhaul, with a switch to a points system, and opposed the simple increase in the starting age. This time, it is rather the opposite. An increase in the retirement age, advocated loud and clear by the Minister of the Economy Bruno Le Maire, is envisaged, possibly at 64, according to an adviser to the executive. To make it acceptable, it could be accompanied by a boost to small pensions, to people who have had a choppy career, especially women, or who started working very young. The abolition of special regimes, a measure which according to the executive is a consensus of opinion, remains on the program.

The points system, yet a campaign promise, seems to be buried. "It was so fair that the big winners did not understand anything and the big losers were already in the street", sums up bitterly someone close to the president.

Before 2022?

If at the Eysée it is indicated that nothing has been decided, more and more votes in the majority are taking a position in favor of an action from this year. "I believe that the president wants to engage the country now in the post Covid", slips an adviser.

What announcements?

The head of state intends to speak by July 14, according to government spokesman Gabriel Attal. But the latter also warned that any pension reform would depend on the epidemic situation, threatened by the Delta variant. The Head of State could therefore choose to announce in July the principle and the course of a reform, even if it means postponing to September for its modalities, the time to examine the summer evolution of the curves of the Covid, estimates an adviser. .

What obstacles?

All unions, including the CFDT initially in favor of an overhaul of the system, have warned the executive against adopting such a reform before 2022, in an economy that is still recovering. Even the Medef, in favor of raising the starting age to 64, believes that its application should be postponed after the presidential election, for fear of triggering social movements that would hamper the recovery. "To carry out this reform, we need political capital," declared its president Geoffroy Roux de Bézieux. Same opinion among some officials of the majority, including the boss of the Modem François Bayrou or the president of the Assembly Richard Ferrand who wants "a presidential debate on it" and points to the precariousness of the recovery. As for Jean Castex, privately in favor of raising the starting age, according to several sources he would be "hardly going" on the idea of ​​rushing the calendar.

What support from the French?

Asked about the subject, Gabriel Attal argued that "the observation of the need for reform is shared, including by the social partners", in view of the system's deficit forecasts. If an Opinionway poll for Les Echos published in mid-June confirms this feeling (69% of people questioned it is necessary), 55% of French people believe that this government should not initiate measures and wait for the presidential election.