Warming of 4°C expected in France: the adaptation project is changing dimensions

“We need to stop thinking that climate problems are the problem of the COP and the end of the world. It’s the problem of all of us. Right now and for the years to come,” said the Minister of Ecological Transition, Christophe Béchu, who brought together an amphitheater of experts, elected officials and business leaders on Tuesday in Paris on the issue of adaptation to climate change.

President Emmanuel Macron called during his recent press conference to address the problem. “Whatever efforts we make... we will have to experience the consequences of climate change, it is already here. And so we must adapt,” he said.

Christophe Béchu called last year to come out of "denial" and to prepare France for a warming of 4°C compared to the pre-industrial era in mainland France, a less optimistic scenario than those retained until then.

The country is experiencing greater warming than the global average, in particular because the continents are warming more than the oceans. However, the world has not finished warming due to continued greenhouse gas emissions.

“I think that 1,5 degrees is dead and buried,” said Jean-Marc Jancovici, influential boss of the Shift project, in reference to the most ambitious limit of the 2015 Paris agreement. “Because the system socio-technical installed - factories, cities, means of transport, etc., we are not going to change them at the right speed", he predicts.

But environmentalist senator Ronan Dantec prefers to remember that global political dynamics "are in the process of stabilizing the climate", which should therefore not go beyond +4°C in France... "So it's still rather positive news, even if it’s too much,” he judges.

"Feet in the water"

This warming of 4°C - compared to around 1,7°C today - will therefore serve as a basis for the preparation of the third National Plan for Adaptation to Climate Change (PNACC), which should result in around fifty measures.

This plan must be the subject of a government meeting around Prime Minister Gabriel Attal "towards the end of February" then will be put out for consultation a month later to then be published "at the start of summer" .

Concretely, it could, for example, result in an overhaul of the Labor code (to adapt schedules to heat peaks), encouragement of cool islands in cities or even an overhaul of standards for construction or infrastructure.

A dizzying task as the repercussions of global warming are numerous, on agriculture, health, migrations, natural environments, tourism or infrastructure...

“During the summer, we must expect that our dams will receive less water coming from the glaciers, that our agriculture will receive less water,” recalls glaciologist Heidi Sevestre.

“We must prepare for a port like Le Havre or Nice airport to find itself with its feet in the water. And that can be prepared immediately…”, she continues.

In the ministry's projections, Lille will ultimately have the climate of Bilbao and Brest that of Vigo. But with more numerous and more severe heat waves across the country, worsening floods and diminishing water resources.

In the long term, this means, for example, vine cultivation which becomes difficult in the south, a snowfall rate divided by 3 at 1.500 meters of altitude in the Mont-Blanc massif and the first climate refugees from Miquelon (Saint-Pierre). Pierre-et-Miquelon), threatened by rising water levels.

Christophe Béchu called on Tuesday to “overcome astonishment when we measure what +4°C means”. “We are going to have to change our cities, our landscapes, our regions,” Emmanuel Macron has already predicted.