Unemployment: the year starts on a positive note, but to be "put into perspective"

In the first quarter, the number of unemployed fell by 36.700 registered compared to the previous quarter, to 3,016 million, according to figures released Wednesday by the Ministry of Labor.

Over one year, the fall in category A is 5,9%. Including reduced activity (categories B and C of Pôle Emploi), the number of job seekers fell by 0,4% in the first quarter (-3% over one year) and stood at 5,369 million, according to the Statistics Department of the Ministry of Labor (Dares).

The Minister of Labor Olivier Dussopt immediately welcomed this "new setback". "We are not giving up to pursue our goal: full employment," he added.

In the previous quarter, unemployment had also fallen in category A despite sluggish growth at the end of the year, closing a good year 2022 for employment with 312.000 fewer unemployed, a decrease of 9,3%.

In the first quarter, category B increased slightly (+0,3%) and category C recorded an increase of 0,9%.

In category A, for metropolitan France alone, the number of job seekers increased by 0,5% for those under 25 (+0,8% over one year), decreased by 1,4% for those aged 25 to 49 years old (-6,5% over one year) and 1,7% for those aged 50 or over (-7,3% over one year).

Ten regions recorded a drop in category A, while Hauts-de-France and Normandy were stable and Corsica recorded an increase of 2,5%.

On the long-term unemployment front, the number of job seekers registered for a year or more (in category A, B, C) fell by 2,3% (-11,2% over one year). The share of job seekers registered for one year represents 44,3% (-4,1 points over one year).

"Not the right reasons"

For Eric Heyer, director at the OFCE, these results are "not as positive as it seems" and are to be "put into perspective".

"When we see why it has dropped, the reasons for leaving" Pôle emploi show entry into internships or training or the cessation of research which "are not the right reasons", he says. “And the best reason, which is the declared recovery in employment, is down,” he notes, this reason falling by 3,4% over the quarter (-21,6% over one year).

“Category A has fallen, but the other categories have increased. What has increased sharply in particular is category B of less than 20 hours”, also observes the economist (+3,9% over the quarter, + 28,9% over one year), therefore jobs "with very short working hours and therefore precarious".

He also notes that among young people the number of enrollments "is increasing, so we have the impression that the effect of learning is being diluted".

"In other words, it's pretty good but we don't have proof yet" of a "good drop in unemployment". He refers to the INSEE figures expected in mid-May to see if the employment rate has increased because "if the unemployment rate drops while the employment rate does not increase, that means that it is falling for wrong reasons".

To accelerate the decline in unemployment and achieve its goal of full employment - an unemployment rate of around 5% (compared to 7,2% in the 4th quarter of 2022) the government is counting in particular on the transformation of Pôle emploi into France Travail. A bill must be presented "at the beginning of June", Elisabeth Borne announced on Wednesday.