Tripling renewable energies by 2030: “ambitious but achievable”

Why triple renewables?

This objective is supported by many countries including those of the G20 (80% of global greenhouse gas emissions), which in September for the first time committed to "encourage efforts" to this end, while remaining silent on the reduction of fossil fuels.

For Dave Jones, expert at the Ember think tank, this at least had the merit of putting renewables back at the center of action: "we were too focused on hydrogen, carbon capture..."

Because the tripling of renewable energies (wind, solar, hydroelectricity, biomass, etc.) is the first step in the scenarios for carbon neutrality. If the world wants to stay below 1,5°C of warming compared to the pre-industrial period, this is "the most important lever", to replace coal, gas and oil, underlines the International Energy Agency (OUCH).

Tripling means avoiding 7 billion tonnes of CO2 cumulatively from 2023 to 2030, notes the IEA, a notable saving compared to the 37 billion tonnes released by energy in 2022.

This would make it possible to cover the growth in electricity demand linked to transport, heating or the expected boom in air conditioners. We could thus halve the volume of electricity from coal, the number one source of CO2.

What does this imply ?

Concretely, we would need to go from 3.600 gigawatts (GW) from renewables at the end of 2022 to 11.000 GW in 2030, explains Dave Jones.

While the world has installed 300 GW of new capacity in 2022 and hopes for up to 500 more in 2023, it would be necessary to quickly reach 1.500 GW per year by 2030, mainly with wind turbines and solar panels.

Progress is already there. From 2015 to 2022, renewable installations grew by an average of 11% each year. And against a backdrop of soaring oil and gas prices and energy insecurity linked to the war in Ukraine, the IEA expects unprecedented growth in 2023 (around +30%).

In photovoltaics, China could reach its 2030 target of 1.200 GW from 2025. The supply of components now exceeds demand and should reach 1.000 GW per year in 2024 in China but also via projects in the United States, Europe or in India.

Wind power, on the other hand, is experiencing difficulties, faced with rising costs and interest rates.

Not all countries will have to make the same efforts, Ember underlines in an analysis which judges the target "attainable": some are already on a doubling trajectory. Other large emitters (Australia, Japan, South Korea, United Arab Emirates, etc.) have room for improvement.

“Many challenges remain”, summarizes the IEA, for which “tripling renewables by 2030 is an ambitious and yet achievable objective”.

How to achieve it?

Last year, 1.000 GW of wind and solar capacity remained in the pipeline across the world, due to a lack of adequate electricity networks and authorizations, underlines the Ren21 study network.

These well-known and often quick-to-deploy technologies also require investments to get started, particularly in emerging and developing countries.

These countries are a priority, given their electricity needs, underlines the Renewable Energy Agency (Irena). However, until now there has been a lack of funding: only 2% of transition investments went to Africa in 2000-2020.

“We need 4.000 billion dollars per year and we are far from it!” deplores Rana Adib, director of Ren21, who calls for “concrete commitments”. “We know that the energy transition also means stopping new investments in fossil fuels.”

However, in 2022, hydrocarbons have been subsidized twice as much as in 2021: nearly $1.300 trillion in public money, for the G20 countries alone, according to BloombergNEF.

This “could have financed 1.900 GW of solar power plants, or ten times the capacity installed by the G20 last year,” underlines this research organization.

The consequence of this situation is clear today, insists Rana Adib: oil, gas and coal still represent more than 80% of global final energy consumption, a rate which has not changed for years.