Tripling renewable energies in a few years, “necessary and feasible”

Q: Why triple solar, wind and other renewables?

A: The G20 will "continue and encourage efforts" to this end, according to the final declaration which thus approves the recommendations of the experts, already taken up a few weeks ago by the Emirati Sultan Al Jaber, president of COP28 which will meet at the end of year in Dubai.

The G20 countries, which include Russia and Saudi Arabia and emit 80% of greenhouse gases, have however not taken any action on reducing fossil fuels.

For Dave Jones, expert from the Ember think tank, this mention is a good surprise which allows us to finally return to the heart of the subject: "until recently, we were very focused on hydrogen, or carbon capture, losing most important view".

Because the tripling of renewable energies is the essential objective of the scenarios for carbon neutrality, in particular that of the International Energy Agency (IEA). If the world wants to stay under 1,5°C of warming, this will be "the most important lever" to reduce demand for fossils (coal, gas, oil), underlines the agency.

Tripling means avoiding 7 billion tonnes of CO2 from 2023 to 2030, she notes. This would make it possible, according to the IEA, to cover the growth in electricity demand linked to transport, heating or the expected boom in air conditioners. And we could thus reduce by half the volume of electricity from coal, today the number one source of CO2, again according to the IEA.

Q: What does this imply ?

Concretely, we would need to go from 3.600 gigawatts (GW) from renewables at the end of 2022 to 11.000 GW in 2030, explains Dave Jones.

While the world has installed 300 GW of new capacity in 2022 and hopes for up to 500 additional ones in 2023, we should quickly reach 1.500 GW per year by 2030.

Progress is already there. From 2015 to 2022, renewable installations grew by an average of 11% each year. And in a context of soaring oil and gas prices and energy insecurity linked in particular to the war in Ukraine, the IEA expects unprecedented growth in new renewable capacities in 2023 (around +30%).

The progress in photovoltaics is marked. China could reach its 2030 target of 1.200 GW by 2025. Overall, the manufacturing capacity of components now exceeds demand and should reach 1.000 GW per year in 2024 in China but also via projects in the United States, Europe or in India.

Wind power, on the other hand, is experiencing difficulties. Faced with rising costs and interest rates, the industry is struggling to meet demand and is calling on governments to review their allocation methods.

“Many challenges remain”, summarizes the IEA, for which “tripling renewable capacities by 2030 is an ambitious and yet achievable objective”.

Q: How to achieve it?

Last year, 1 TW of wind and solar capacity remained in the pipeline across the world, due to a lack of adequate electricity networks and authorizations, underlines the Ren21 study network.

Solar, wind, dams, geothermal, biomass... these well-known and often quick-to-deploy technologies also require investments to get started, particularly in emerging and developing countries.

“We need 4.000 billion dollars per year and we are far from it!” laments Rana Adib, director of Ren21. The mention at the G20 “is a positive thing, but there is no concrete commitment”.

“We know that the energy transition also means stopping new investments in fossil fuels. However, in 2022, fossil fuels will benefit from 1.000 billion dollars in subsidies, 85% more than in 2021,” notes -she.

The consequence is clear, she insists: oil, gas and coal still represent more than 80% of global final energy consumption today, a rate which has not changed for years.