Top 20 cities most threatened by the ZAN law

Between 2011 and 2020, the population increased by 2 million inhabitants and France had to artificialize 23.000 hectares of new soil each year to ensure its economic and demographic development. For each new inhabitant, 1.129 m² of land have been artificialized to build housing, public education, healthcare, transport, storage and even businesses.

The ZAN law imposes the halving of the consumption of natural, agricultural and forestry soils in France, by 2030, and aims to stop the artificialization of soils by 2050.

As space is now becoming a rare and limited resource, this new restriction will have impacts on:

• the territories, unequal in the face of the law: 20 centers (INSEE employment areas, listed below) will concentrate 25% of the total number of missing hectares in France.
• households, the scarcity of housing available for rental or sale leading to a lasting increase in the cost of real estate, and therefore a deterioration in the purchasing power of individuals.
• economic development and the country's environmental transition: at a time of green reindustrialization, the installation of factories and their ecosystems will require the provision of significant land availability.

Land tension map of France

The territories most in tension

The map opposite represents the territories in which the ZAN law most limits land needs. 20 employment areas, or only 7% of the territory, would concentrate more than 25% of the number of missing hectares. A tension which would primarily concern the Great West of France, the Toulouse basin, and the Rhone corridor even though these are often the most dynamic territories in terms of demographic growth or employment growth.

For Cevan Torossian, Director of the Studies & Research department of Arthur Loyd: “The legislator has “whistled the end of the game” for areas with low urban density, but also for areas that are highly attractive to the French, such as the Grand-Ouest, the coasts and the Rhône corridor. Land sobriety will have insidious effects on territorial planning, favoring insiders to the detriment of newcomers: actors already present in a given territory, already benefiting from built or artificialized sites, the value of which will very likely increase . Conversely, the step will be much higher for new arrivals in a territory, who will suffer the additional costs linked to the scarcity of land. This reasoning applies as much to the booming SME/SMI as to households with the question of housing. »

Housing crisis: the ZAN law will reduce the purchasing power of households

According to INSEE, the number of households is expected to continue to grow, from nearly 30 million in 2018 to 34 million in 2050. A demographic change which will lead to new needs for housing, services and equipment, in a context of scarcity land.

For Cevan Torossian: “The increase in real estate costs will represent a lasting problem for the French, while housing is already the number one item of household expenditure. According to assessments carried out by the Court of Auditors and professionals in the sector, 370.000 to 449.000 housing units would need to be built each year to meet the needs of households. However, barely 250.000 housing starts should be recorded in 2024. Not to mention the infrastructure and amenities that population growth can bring about, as well as the structural reduction in the average size of households. »

Will the ZAN law slow down reindustrialization?

With 12,8 billion euros invested in the first half of 1 in green sectors, capital is flowing in and projects are multiplying to accelerate the country's environmental transition: the battery & electric vehicle and solar sectors clearly stand out this year. Territories located outside metropolises, which will tomorrow be the first affected by the constraints of land sobriety, currently concentrate three quarters of the total volume invested.

The question of the surface area necessary to accommodate these new industries arises. According to the report of Prefect Rollon Mouchel Blaisot, 22.000 hectares should more specifically be necessary to allow the reindustrialization of the country, all sectors combined.

For For Cevan Torossian: “It’s not just about the space needed to build a factory like a battery gigafactory. Factories depend on an entire ecosystem: housing, educational and health establishments, businesses, transport infrastructure, logistics platforms, etc. We must prioritize urban recycling in the broad sense: the reconversion of wasteland, the transformation of obsolete buildings, etc. In other words, the reconstruction of the city on itself. But be careful: even by increasing the volume of urban recycling, the account is not there! These complex practices also have in common that they are more expensive and take longer to implement. And we should not expect anything from the bill "relating to the acceleration and simplification of the renovation of degraded housing and major development operations": by providing for new exceptional measures to the rule, it will add complexity and goes against the logic of simplification. However, administrative complexity should be reduced to facilitate the construction of factories and housing; and a break on the ZAN is one of the solutions. »

According to Arthur Loyd's calculations, the theoretical land requirements for green sectors in France are between 846 ha and 2.672 ha per year, depending on the method of accounting for photovoltaic parks, which by nature consume a lot of space. Green sectors could represent between 7% and 21% of the land artificialization envelope that France has set for itself during the 2021-2030 period.

The industry – and a fortiori the sectors linked to climate transition – will probably suffer from increased competition from other destinations (housing, commerce, offices, etc.), with exit prices for real estate operations more attractive than those of other destinations. 'industry. Beyond the hostility of residents that industrial projects can generate, there is a real risk of eviction from many territories for green sectors.

For Cevan Torossian: “In other words, green industry and renewable energies could lack land due to an overly ambitious land conservation policy by 2030. The ZAN objective is ultimately only one example among many others from the very French over-transposition of European directives, France being the only country so restrictive in the application of a common objective of land sobriety on the scale of the European Union. »

“A necessary moratorium on the “ZAN” objective to take into account the impact of the law”

For Cevan Torossian, Director of the Studies & Research department of Arthur Loyd: “The accounting logic of the artificialization and renaturation of artificialized spaces should take into account the realities that weigh heavily on the territories. Impact studies should have been carried out prior to the application of such a structuring public policy for the latter. It is urgent to take a pause to assess the risks linked to the lack of land for the achievement of France's decarbonization and economic sovereignty objectives. A moratorium of 18 to 24 months on the application of the ZAN objective aimed at taking into account the ins and outs of such a policy, would send a strong signal to project leaders in green industrial sectors in particular, by defusing the current over-anticipation of the ZAN, in its 2050 objective, experienced in certain territories. This moratorium would be in addition to the additional deadlines for integrating the ZAN into town planning documents, provided for in the law of July 2023.”