Thirst for fossil fuels threatens climate goals, warns IEA

In its new annual report released Tuesday, the IEA estimates that "as things stand, demand for fossil fuels is likely to remain far too high" to maintain the most ambitious climate goal of the 2015 Paris Agreement It aims to limit the rise in average global temperatures to 1,5°C compared to the pre-industrial era.

“Bending the emissions curve” to be able to contain global warming to 1,5°C is still “possible”, but the path promises to be “very difficult”, warns the IEA, in its 354-page report.

“Despite the impressive growth in clean energy” as observed in current policies, greenhouse gas emissions would remain “significant enough” to cause global average temperatures to rise by around 2,4° this century. .

“Stronger policies”

This document is published a few weeks before crucial negotiations at the 28th United Nations Climate Conference in Dubai (November 30 to December 12) where the future of fossil fuels is expected to give rise to fierce debates.

"The transition to clean energy is underway around the world and it is inevitable. It's not a question of 'if', it's just a question of 'when' - and the sooner the better everyone,” said Fatih Birol, executive director of the IEA, commenting in a press release on the release of this report, a projection of the energy world in 2030.

On this horizon, the IEA estimates that there should be 10 times more electric vehicles on the road in the world than today, while the share of renewables in the global electricity mix should approach 50% (compared to 30 % Currently).

Progress is already there, with investments in clean energy up 40% since 2020, but "stronger policies are needed" to reach the maximum warming target of 1,5°C, warns the IEA, by reiterating its call to triple renewable energy capacity by 2030.

“Given the tensions and volatility that characterize traditional energy markets today, claims that oil and gas represent safe or secure choices for the entire world are unfounded,” warned Fatih Birol, while OPEC, the oil exporting cartel, recently declared that the world will still need fossil fuels for many years.

“Redouble cooperation”

The IEA expects demand for gas, oil and coal to peak this decade. In its scenario based on current policies, the share of fossil fuels in global energy supply, remaining for decades at around 80%, will decline to 73% by 2030, with global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions linked to to energy peaking by 2025.

“Governments, businesses and investors must support clean energy transitions rather than hinder them,” added Fatih Birol, citing the “benefits” in terms of security of supply, jobs and air quality. to develop carbon-free energy technologies.

In this race to fight climate change, countries will above all have to “redouble collaboration and cooperation”. “The urgent challenge is to accelerate the pace of new clean energy projects, particularly in many emerging and developing countries,” according to the IEA, which recommends increasing investments in the transition fivefold by 2030. energy in these countries (excluding China).

“The speed at which emissions fall will largely depend on our ability to finance sustainable solutions to meet the growing energy demand of fast-growing economies,” stressed Mr. Birol.