"Nearly 70 countries, which collectively represent 80% of the world's renewable energy capacity, are on track to meet or exceed their current 2030 renewable energy ambitions," the agency reports in its annual "Renewables 2024" report.
This growth "is not fully consistent" with the objective set at the international climate conference in December 2023, COP28, to triple global renewable energy capacity by the end of this decade, but "this tripling objective is entirely possible if governments seize the opportunities for action in the short term."
According to the IEA, global capacity "will reach 2,7 times its 2022 level by 2030."
Solar PV alone is expected to account for 80% of global renewable capacity growth by 2030, while wind is expected to double its expansion rate between 2024 and 2030 compared to the 2017-2023 period.
China in first position
Geographically, China is expected to account for nearly 60% of all installed renewable capacity worldwide by 2030 and be home to nearly half of the world's total renewable energy capacity, up from one-third in 2010.
On the other hand, the IEA points out, renewable fuels such as biofuel or hydrogen are lagging behind, highlighting the need for dedicated political support to decarbonise sectors that are difficult to electrify.
This goal of tripling renewable energy capacity was set at COP28 in Dubai. Participants agreed to call for a "transition" towards an "exit from fossil fuels in energy systems."
This is a sine qua non condition for achieving the most ambitious objective of the Paris Agreement: limiting global temperature warming to +1,5°C in 2050, i.e. in 25 years, compared to the pre-industrial era.
In addition to the production of carbon-free electricity, renewable energies have another significant advantage: their production is inexpensive.
The cheapest option
The rapid deployment of renewables is also due to the fact that they now represent "the cheapest option for adding new power plants in almost every country in the world," stressed Fatih Birol, the IEA's director general.
"By 2030, the world is on track to add more than 5.500 gigawatts of renewable energy capacity, roughly equivalent to the current capacity of China, the European Union, India and the United States combined," he added. By that time, "we expect renewables to meet half of global electricity demand."
But to achieve this tripling, states will have to be "bolder" in the enhanced climate targets (NDCs) they are supposed to present by 2025 under the Paris Agreement, the IEA stresses.
The Agency recommends above all strengthening international cooperation in order to reduce the financing costs of renewables (wind, solar, biogas), which are "high in emerging and developing economies" and have the effect of slowing their growth in regions such as Africa and South-East Asia, which nevertheless have "strong potential".
States will also have to ensure that they properly integrate solar photovoltaic and wind energy into their electricity systems. This will require greater flexibility in electricity systems and in particular an increase in battery storage capacity.
"The growth in renewables we have seen so far is just the beginning," commented energy think tank Ember.
"The market can meet the needs of renewable energy, and governments must now prioritise investments in storage, grids and other forms of clean flexibility to enable this transformation," he added in a commentary sent to AFP.
Illustrative image of the article via Depositphotos.com.