According to figures published Tuesday by INSEE, the unemployment rate, measured according to the standards of the International Labor Office (ILO), fell by 0,1 points: France has 2,2 million unemployed, or 45.000 down from the previous quarter.
The unemployment rate for the 4th quarter is thus 0,3 points lower than its level a year earlier, and 1 point lower than its level before the health crisis (end of 2019), specified the institute.
“Over a longer period, we observe that the unemployment rate is at its lowest level since the first quarter of 2008 if we except the very punctual drop a little + in trompe l’oeil + during the first confinement”, noted with AFP Yves Jauneau, head of the Synthesis and conjuncture of the labor market division at INSEE. During this Covid period, many people had stopped looking for work.
Several members of the government immediately welcomed these results, starting with Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne who stressed on Twitter that the government is pursuing its "full employment objective", i.e. an unemployment rate around 5% that the executive hopes to achieve. by 2027.
"Good news for our #ObjectifPleinEmploi", also noted the Minister of Labor Olivier Dussopt, pointing to an unemployment rate which "reaches the lowest level in 40 years reached once at the beginning of 2008".
"In the thickness of the line"
For Mathieu Plane, economist at the French Observatory of Economic Conditions (OFCE), it is "rather a slight good surprise" because "we could have expected stability", but "we are in the thickness of the line ".
These figures are "fairly consistent" with the data published last week by INSEE on job creation, which showed "relative stability" in the last quarter of 2022, after seven consecutive quarters of increase, he noted. .
For Yves Jauneau, "the situation this quarter is a bit that of overall stability: unemployment, the employment rate, the latter remaining at a fairly high level". "The employment rate for 15-64 year olds is at 68,3%, the highest since 1975. There, it is stabilizing after an increase in the previous quarters," he added.
In a December economic note, "consistent" with the data published on Tuesday according to Mr. Jauneau, INSEE forecast "a stability in the unemployment rate during the first half of 2023, concomitant with a slowdown in employment", he recalled, even if there are still "uncertainty factors" with the economic environment or the international situation.
By age group, the unemployment rate for young people (15-24 years old) fell by one point, to 16,9%, while the unemployment rate for 25-49 year olds was stable at 6,5%. Finally, the unemployment rate for people aged 50 or over barely decreased over the quarter (-0,1 point) to 5%.
In terms of "good news", Mathieu Plane noted the employment rate on permanent contracts which "continues to improve" at 50,5% (+0,4 points).
In terms of "bad news", the economist notes "the rise in the +halo around unemployment+ and underemployment", both increasing by 0,1 point, whereas in previous quarters "in general" they fell when unemployment was falling.
The "halo around unemployment" refers to people wishing to return to the labor market but who are not considered unemployed by the ILO (actually looking for a job and being available to take one). In total, 1,9 million people are affected.
With these "communicating vessels effects", according to Mr. Plane, "the news is to be taken with modesty on the drop in the unemployment rate".