The rise in unemployment in the third quarter could mark a reversal of the trend

In France (excluding Mayotte), there are 17.400 more people over a quarter who are looking for a job and are not engaged in any activity, or 3,028 million in total, after a slight decline in unemployment in the spring, according to the figures. published Wednesday by the Ministry of Labor.

The increase is slightly higher for mainland France alone (0,7%).

Including reduced activity (categories B and C of Pôle emploi), the increase in the number of job seekers is lower, with only 0,2% increase in the third quarter compared to the previous quarter, at 5,352 million, according to the statistics directorate of the Ministry of Labor (Dares).

Over one year, unemployment continues to trend downward in the third quarter, with 120.000 fewer job seekers (i.e. 3,8%), compared to summer 2022, although with an increase of 3,1%. the number of young job seekers (aged under 25).

Compared to the second quarter, the number of category B unemployed - those having exercised a reduced activity of up to 78 hours per month - is up significantly by 3,1%, with 24.900 more people in this situation.

The ministry notes that “entries to Pôle Emploi are increasing” by 0,7%, with more terminations of temporary work assignments and conventional terminations.

Job creation fell in the second quarter, and we are today facing “an inversion of the unemployment curve in the wrong direction, after several years of decline” (since 2015), comments economist Mathieu Plane, deputy director of the analysis and forecasting department of the OFCE.

Hiring declarations were also stable in the third quarter (they had further progressed in the second quarter), reported Urssaf.

“Relatively gloomy context”

Last week, the Minister of Labor Olivier Dussopt was less optimistic than before: studies show the "risk of stabilization and some say perhaps a slight increase of 0,1 or 0,2 points in unemployment ", he said on BFM Business. “Today we are at 7,1% unemployment and our objective is to stabilize this rate.”

The OFCE, for its part, expects a stronger rise in the unemployment rate, to 7,4% at the end of 2023 and 7,9% at the end of 2024.

Mathieu Plane notes "a relatively gloomy context" with international tensions, "the rise in interest rates", and the effects of inflation, particularly on energy and food prices.

These shocks weigh on growth, which oscillates between 0,1 and 0,2% per quarter. However, "with such low growth, it is difficult to create jobs. Or we need specific measures, which we have had in the past and which will stop", explains the economist, in reference to public support for businesses and households during the pandemic and at the start of the energy crisis.

Thanks to this aid, “there were very few bankruptcies in France for three years, which made it possible to maintain a certain number of jobs which would not have been able to be maintained in normal times”. Bankruptcies which have now returned to their pre-Covid level.

The OFCE expects just over 50.000 job losses for 2024.

Additional difficulty: with the pension reform, "people must stay longer on the job market. In two years, we have 177.000 additional workers compared to a scenario without reform", underlines Mathieu Plane. “The economy must create a lot of jobs to absorb this effect.”