The rise in prices in old real estate slows down in the 2nd quarter

"The figures are still in good shape", commented in a press conference Thierry Delesalle, the president of the statistics commission of the Notaries of Greater Paris. “Several exceptional quarters should be followed by perhaps not exceptional but still dynamic quarters,” he predicted.

According toNotaries-INSEE index, which is a benchmark because of its completeness, prices throughout France (excluding Mayotte) at the end of June increased by 6,8% over one year, or half a point less than at the end of March.

And sales volumes are following the same trend: with 1.157.000 transactions over twelve months, they remain at a very high level but are beginning to stall after a record year in 2021.

The major trends observed since the health crisis are still there: the appetite for houses rather than apartments, and the dynamism of the province compared to Île-de-France.

The price of houses, driven by the desire for greenery and space since the 2020 confinements, increased by 8,4%, or almost double that of apartments (+4,5%).

The former has increased by 8,6% in the provinces, against 2,2% in the Paris region. Apartment prices are even down by 0,8% in the capital.

And this despite a return of foreign buyers to the luxury market, which is clearly observed in the most expensive districts (XNUMXth, XNUMXth, XNUMXth) of the capital, where prices continue to climb.

"The euro is not in good shape (...) for those who pay in dollars or pounds sterling, it's a real pleasure!", commented Me Delesalle.

Lyon joined the Parisian trend, with perfectly stable prices over one year.

"Dark Clouds"

Shocks to the global economy could nevertheless accentuate this slowdown in the coming months, warn professionals.

"We see that this phenomenon continues, it is growing", comments for AFP Éric Allouche, president of the network of agencies ERA Immobilier France. “We are going to witness a stagnation in prices between now and the end of the year, in volumes which nevertheless remain quite significant since real estate remains a safe haven”.

Notaries' figures, which are based on definitively concluded sales, are indeed a few months behind market trends. The effects of soaring energy prices, galloping inflation and restricted access to credit are therefore not yet fully reflected.

"We have a lot of very dark clouds," predicted Me Delesalle. "With inflation completely decorrelated from wages, it's true that purchasing power takes a hit; money is more expensive and above all more and more difficult to obtain...".

Despite the willingness of banks to contain the rise in mortgage rates, the rapid rise in interest rates, combined with the usury rate in force in France, which prevents them from lending beyond a certain rate, is hampering the granting of real estate loans.

"There are moves that don't happen because of that," said Me Delesalle.

Second major obstacle: the regulations on thermal colanders. To encourage owners to renovate their property, an essential lever for the ecological transition, the most energy-intensive housing will gradually, from 1 January next, be banned from renting.

"Some will perhaps do the work on time, but some will also be tempted to sell their homes", warns Éric Allouche, fearing that the selling prices will drop... but that those of the rents will soar.

The only factor that can sustain price increases comes from new construction, which has been seized up due to stricter rules on the artificialization of soils, the decline in building permits and the rise in the price of building materials.