The retirement guidance council less optimistic in its simulations

Following a meeting on Thursday morning, this body plays a "watchdog" role on the future development of pensions and has decided to work on the basis of four productivity growth hypotheses: +0,4%, +0,7 .1%, +1,3%, +XNUMX%.

This range proposed by its new president Gilbert This is lower than the previous one, which was +0,7%, +1%, +1,3%, and +1,6%.

Furthermore, unlike previous years, the COR will highlight in its next report - in June - a "reference scenario", that of productivity growth of 1%, instead of presenting the four hypotheses to equality.

The others will be studied in the form of “sensitivity studies”, less detailed, specified an internal source at COR.

The president of the COR would have liked to take the scenario of +0,7% as a reference, which seemed more realistic to him in view of the evolution of productivity over the last 10, 15 or 20 years.

But having already won his case on a slightly more pessimistic range, and the display of a central scenario, he proposed this compromise at +1%, according to the various sources interviewed by AFP.

The appointment in October of Gilbert Cela, to replace Pierre-Louis Bras, had aroused criticism among the unions, who criticized him for his positions in favor of reform and suspected him of being an instrument for taking control of the COR by the 'executive.

On Thursday, the CGT regretted the change of method. “When we take low growth hypotheses like that, (..) it’s as if we were immediately saying that we had to raise the retirement age,” lamented Pierre-Yves Chanu, who represents the CGT at COR.

The posting of significant deficits in the long term risks serving as a pretext for the government "to say: we have not gone far enough, we need a new reform", he added. But the CGT “does not subscribe to the idea that in the future there will be no more growth”.

Dominique Corona (UNSA) regretted these changes in hypotheses when “stability is what allows things to be compared from year to year”.

But “at least” the president tried to find a consensus, he added.

The COR, which brings together 41 members - parliamentarians, representatives of employers, unions, large administrations and experts - is attached to Matignon but works independently.