These initial unfavourable signals have only been confirmed in the first part of 2024 until the end of August, plunging the entire thermal solutions market into a deep crisis. Air/water heat pumps and biomass boilers are showing the biggest decline, with -46% and -58% respectively, despite the energy performance displayed by these technologies that use renewable energies.
There are many reasons for this significant market drop.
The new construction market is experiencing a major crisis with a significant drop in the number of building permits filed. In addition, with the purchasing power of the French weakened, the renovation market has also suffered a sudden slowdown.
The uncertainty surrounding the granting of aid linked to the MaPrimeRénov' scheme, following the successive changes that took place in January 2024 with the restriction of subsidies for single actions, then their reintroduction in May 2024, combined with long weeks of political uncertainty, have contributed to the decline in the climate engineering market.
A preferred tool for the renovation of Joule Effect electric heating, sales of air/air heat pumps were also impacted, whereas they had held up rather well until then. The weather in spring and summer 2024 in France may also have played a role in this -15% decline.
Remaining low in volume, the residential geothermal market is falling again after the slight improvement in 2023.
The solar thermal market is not spared with a new very marked drop of -28% measured in associated collector surface area and -35% for the number of systems (individual solar water heaters and combined solar systems). A regrettable trend for this free and decarbonized energy.
Only gas boilers with a power of less than 70 kW and water radiators are doing well in the first half of 1, with respective growth of +2024% and +17%.
Faced with the current uncertainty and the higher cost of renewable energy equipment, the French have undoubtedly preferred to turn to these more traditional solutions.
Faced with a sluggish market, climate engineering manufacturers are calling for new, broad consultation with public authorities
On the occasion of the Interclima 2024 trade fair, the climate engineering manufacturers – members of Uniclima – wanted to draw the attention of the public authorities to the major crisis that the construction sector is going through¹ and the necessary dialogue that must be quickly re-established with the new government to revive the market.
The year 2024 will not be good! It is the result of sales that began to drop from September 2023 and continued to deteriorate over the first 8 months of 2024, reflecting both the poor health of new construction in the building sector and, in turn, a failed renovation.
The difficulties arise from multiple factors linked to a deteriorating macroeconomic situation on the one hand, but also, to a large extent, from the complexity and instability of the public aid put in place, particularly with regard to the MaPrimeRénov' system.
For manufacturers, pragmatism must be the order of the day without opposing global renovation and renovation by gesture, both of which are essential to achieve the carbon neutrality objectives by 2050. Despite the relaxations put in place from May 2024, sales are still significantly down compared to last year. The accumulated delay will unfortunately not be made up for. To date, the outlook for 2025 remains very uncertain and subject to the measures that will be decided by the new government.
To revive activity and get back on the path to renovation, professionals need a new and broad consultation that takes into account the realities on the ground. While large-scale renovation is effective whenever possible, it nevertheless faces technical, financial and organizational difficulties. By prioritizing the complete thermal insulation of buildings, this type of renovation, although essential, will not on its own achieve the volumes needed to meet France's ambitious objectives by 2050.
At the same time, the reality on the ground has often shown that it is entirely possible to aim for a coherent objective through a renovation process in successive stages aiming for the same overall efficiency and decarbonization objective in the long term. This pragmatic approach makes it possible to achieve energy savings and massive decarbonization, while immediately reducing the energy bill of project owners and/or users. It is also more in line with the financial capacity of households. The two systems are therefore intended to coexist to enable as many people as possible to enter the energy transition.
Furthermore, in order to adapt to all renovation cases, it is necessary to maintain as wide a range of heating and domestic hot water production technologies as possible, provided that these solutions are energy efficient and carbon-free. The most cutting-edge solutions are not always suitable in terms of implementation for certain building configurations or urban planning constraints. At the same time, a renovation should not be considered without a mechanical ventilation system that is essential for the health of the occupants, the energy control and decarbonization of the building, as well as the durability of the building. These ventilation systems are all the more essential since reinforced thermal insulation of buildings considerably increases its airtightness to outside air.
The various heat pump technologies are set to play a major role in the energy transition. In addition, solar heat, biomass boilers, hybrid systems and combinations made possible by the advent of biofuels also have a role to play in many cases.
As early as 2022, Uniclima's manufacturers committed to the public authorities to be able to produce 1 million heat pumps by 2030 on the national territory! This was already a real challenge in the favorable market conditions of early 2023. In the midst of the current crisis, forcing manufacturers to reduce their expenses, implement technical unemployment and workforce reductions, this objective seems to be moving further away. They are reasonably questioning the viability of the investments in production that had been planned at the time. More than €200 million of investments are on hold, with more than 1.000 direct jobs at stake. It will be necessary for the markets to find clear and stable prospects over a sufficiently long period for confidence to be restored and to allow for a reassuring outlook in the long term.
Faced with this observation, Uniclima's manufacturers remain more mobilized than ever in collaboration with the entire sector to work with the new government on collective solutions with the aim of reviving the market, restoring the confidence of professionals and households and continuing to achieve our energy transition and building decarbonization objectives.
Also see the open letter to the Prime Minister to request the extension of the transitional period of MaPrimeRenov beyond January 1, 2025 co-signed by Uniclima with 28 other professional organizations representing the construction and real estate sectors: Open letter from the Prime Minister - Request for extension of the transitional period MaPrimeRenov'
¹:
– 20%: number of housing units started over 12 months to the end of July 2024 (August 2023 to July 2024) – Source: Ministry of Ecological Transition and Territorial Cohesion, data and statistical studies department.
– 44%: number of MPR files at the end of June 2024 – source Anah
Illustrative image of the article via Depositphotos.com.