Between March 2020 and June 2022, nearly 700.000 PGEs were granted by banks for a total amount exceeding 143 billion euros.
These loans have enabled many companies to hold on during the pandemic and to replenish their cash flow on advantageous terms, their interest rate not exceeding 2,5%, including the state guarantee.
As of 2021, 45% of PGEs began to be reimbursed, and a large wave of companies were to start paying their installments from spring 2022 (more than 200.000 PGEs), the national credit mediator told AFP. at the Banque de France, Frédéric Visnovsky.
In the event of default by the borrower, the State guarantees the banks a 90% refund for VSEs, SMEs and ETIs.
In total, PGEs represent nearly 11% of total outstanding bank credit to businesses.
Pressed by the government to grant these loans quickly, at the time of the first confinement in the spring of 2020, were the banks not very attentive in the allocation of these credits, in view of the low risk incurred?
The risk of default was not considered high initially: it was originally estimated at 5,1% of contracted PGEs, then revised downwards in 2021 to 3,1% with the rebound in activity , before being reassessed upwards this summer to 4,6%, recalls Frédéric Visnovsky. According to him, this figure could still increase, "but not significantly".
For the time being, the banks do not seem worried.
"To date, we have observed a default rate in the amount of extremely minimal unpaid amounts (around 0,07%)", replied to AFP the BPCE group, which granted 228.000 PGEs for 35 billion euros. .
For Société Générale, “loans guaranteed by the State continue to be gradually amortized and the associated default rate remains limited”.
The difficulties, to come in 2023
On the business side, the hour of difficulties has not yet come. The economic downturn "does not materialize yet today, neither in the treasuries in an effective way, nor in the traditional requests for mediation, nor in the requests for restructuring of PGE", notes the credit mediator.
But in Bercy, the Interministerial Committee for Industrial Restructuring (Ciri), whose task is to help companies in difficulty with at least 400 employees, notes a “significant” increase in its interventions.
"Out of around fifty files currently being processed at Ciri, up to half are concerned by a restructuring of PGE", which is being done as part of a wider debt spread, according to a source within the ministry, which does not publish the names of the companies concerned.
Only one case has become public, that of the tourist group Pierre & Vacances, which saw its PGE converted into capital for more than 200 million euros acquired by the banks.
Even in such an operation, the State refuses to give up on its claim. “When the banks sell their securities, they will pay its share to the State” under the PGE, specifies the source at the ministry.
On the other hand, if a company is liquidated, there is very little chance that the State will recover its guarantee because the reimbursement of the PGE takes place after the payment of wages and social and tax debts.
However, business failures, which fell sharply during the health crisis, are on the rise again.
"The situation will become more complicated in 2023 with the cost of energy" and - following the relaunch of recovery procedures at the end of August - with the resumption of legal proceedings by Urssaf for non-payment by companies of social security contributions and tax, anticipates Frédéric Visnovsky, who expects to see an increase in the number of referrals to credit mediation.
The two most weakened sectors are construction, which "centralizes all problems, recruitment, supply, invoicing" and accommodation and catering, according to the credit mediator.