The real estate market shudders at the start of the year, according to the GH Observatory

During this year 2024, will buyers finally be able to relaunch their real estate projects thanks to rates which would seem to begin a stabilization?
Will sellers agree to adjust their sales prices to adapt to the market?

Decryption with the GH Observatory from January 2024.

Hope is reborn on the property credit side

After months of rapid and uninterrupted increases in mortgage rates, paralyzing market activity, it seems that the outlook has been more favorable for borrowers since the very end of 2023. Between the stabilization or even the drop in rates for certain profiles, and the return of the large network banks (which had stopped their production in 2023), future buyers should – for some of them in any case – be able to once again be supported in the financing of their projects.

For Stéphane Fritz, president of Guy Hoquet l'Immobilier: “Since the end of 2023, certain banks seem to have resumed dialogue with buyers. This is a positive signal to consider for the real estate market, especially since the very strong contraction in the transaction market had significant repercussions on the rental market. »

A positive signal on the financing side, but to be considered with caution

For Stéphane Fritz, president of Guy Hoquet l’Immobilier: “But, if the floodgates of real estate credit open again, I remain cautious about the expected impact. Indeed, with the phenomenon of inflation and the recent surge in rates, the average contribution requested by banks amounts to €70.000 on national average: a colossal sum for a large number of our fellow citizens. »

A slight decline in prices compared to December, but they remain up in 1 year

Houses represent around 60% of the available supply and are driving the market upwards with a supply which once again exceeds the 100.000 property mark in January 2024, up +3.5% in 1 year, and prices/m2 at +1.6% over the same period to €2.816 on average.

It is on the apartment side that the indicators are decreasing in 1 year, both on the supply side (-1.6%) and on the price/m2 side, which fall below the €4.800 mark, at -1.7 %. This slight drop in price/m2 should not, however, mask their high average value, which can make this type of property less attractive for certain buyers.

Across the country, the number of listings of old properties on the market is increasing in the first month of 1, both compared to January 2024 and the previous month.

As for average prices/m2, although they show an increase of +2% in 1 year, they are slightly down compared to December 2023 at -1.5%.

These trends will obviously be followed in the coming months: in fact, will the “normalization” of prices expected by buyers, in order to plan again on a real estate purchase for a main residence or a rental investment, be appointment ?

Individual homes remain the driving force of the real estate market

Houses represent around 60% of the available supply and are driving the market upwards with a supply which once again exceeds the 100.000 property mark in January 2024, up +3.5% in 1 year, and prices/m2 at +1.6% over the same period to €2.816 on average.

It is on the apartment side that the indicators are decreasing in 1 year, both on the supply side (-1.6%) and on the price/m2 side, which fall below the €4.800 mark, at -1.7 %. This slight drop in price/m2 should not, however, mask their high average value, which can make this type of property less attractive for certain buyers.

The Southeast still drives up prices in a multi-speed market

National trends need to be qualified in light of the different regions, which present numerous disparities.

Two regions in the south-eastern quarter of the country continue to push the prices of old real estate upwards: Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes (+4.9%) and still Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur (+6.8% ).

On the contrary, the value per m2 of properties put up for sale shows a decline compared to January 2023 in Center-Val de Loire (-5.7%), Corsica (-3.6%) and Ile de France (-2.8%). Finally, prices tend to stabilize in 7 regions (between -1.8% and +1.7%).

The volume of goods put up for sale has increased in 1 year in 8 of the 13 regions, such as New Aquitaine, Brittany and Corsica, which are even experiencing double-digit growth in supply! This volume stabilizes in Hauts-de-France and Centre-Val de Loire, but declines significantly in Normandy (-10.4%), in Ile de France (-8.8%) and in Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes (-6.5 %).

Evolution of supply and average price/m2 by region

Evolution of the average price/m2 in the 20 largest cities in France

Prices continue to decrease in large cities: in Paris (-0,6%), Lyon (-3,4%), Toulouse (-6%) and Bordeaux (-6,3%).

At the same time, medium-sized towns continue their upward trend, such as Reims (+4,3%), Aix-en-Provence (+3,1%) or Angers (+2,5%).

GH Observatory Methodology

Scope studied: advertisements for properties in old buildings (apartments and houses) published between 25/12/2022 and 24/01/2024.

Source: Yanport data reprocessed (deletion of properties for which price and/or surface area are not mentioned and announcements concerning new programs, life annuities, auctions or presenting entry errors, etc.)

Real estate portals studied: SeLoger, Leboncoin, PAP, Bien'ici, MeilleursAgents, AVendre ALouer, Logic-immo, Belles Demeures, Properties Le Figaro, Lux- Résidence, Paru Vendu, Figaro Immo, Immonot, Private surface, Ouestfrance- immo.

Calculations and analyses: carried out by the company GUY HOQUET L'IMMOBILIER New reprocessing methodology from January 2023 and on all historical data.

Illustrative image of the article via Depositphotos.com.