The new, the old, the social: a multifaceted housing crisis

The old resists

After years of rising, the prices of old real estate are starting to fall back, by 0,2% in the first quarter compared to the end of 2022, an unprecedented drop since 2015.

But what the buyers gained on the purchase price, they lost it, and much more, in the cost of their loans, the interest rates of the loans having almost tripled in 2022.

"The old has been self-regulating since the dawn of time", underlines Charles Marinakis, president of Century 21 France. "His first level of annoyance is obviously the rise in rates, which came to telescope with daily inflation which reduced the rest to live," he said.

According to the Notaries of Greater Paris, for a 65 m2 apartment in the Paris region purchased in July 2023, the monthly loan payment will cost 19% more than in January 2022.

The broken new one

First link in the chain, the new one is in free fall.

Building permits are less numerous, with in recent months a rate of 30 to 35.000 authorizations issued, significantly less than before the Covid pandemic (around 40.000).

"The new one is really the one that suffers the most today, because it is upset in all its work in progress", observes Charles Marinakis.

Developers are caught in a vice between the reduction in the purchasing power of buyers and soaring construction costs.

With the war in Ukraine, materials have undergone a 15% increase in 2022, according to the French Building Federation (FFB).

In 2021, they had already taken 15%, due to the pandemic which had caused supply disruptions.

"It disrupts the logic of projects designed in the world before", seen as profitable at the time and now too expensive, analyzes Marc Oppenheim, CEO of Crédit Agricole Immobilier.

Added to this are the environmental regulations that came into force at the start of 2022 (RE2020), which obliges buildings to be better insulated against cold and heat, with an additional cost of 7 to 8% for builders, according to the FFB.

The mayors, also deplore the promoters, are more reluctant to build, fearing the adage "mayor builder = mayor beaten".

The abolition of the housing tax, directly collected by the municipalities, also reduces their incentives to welcome new inhabitants.

HLMs are staggering

The number of households waiting for social housing, 2,42 million, has never been so high.

Largely financed by savings via the Livret A and the Livret de développement durable et solidaire (LDDS), social landlords have seen, with the increase in rates, their debts increase by 3,5 billion euros in 2022. , according to the Social Union for Housing. This hampers their ability to build new housing or renovate existing ones.

They have also denounced for a long time the savings measures imposed on them under the presidency of Emmanuel Macron.

The flu rental

Rental accommodation is also becoming scarce.

The rental market "is caught between the crossfire of the lack of new housing dumped on the market and the slowdown in leave given by tenants, who stay at home" for lack of being able to become owners, explains Charles Marinakis.

Two phenomena are also accused of reducing the rental supply: furnished tourist accommodation such as Airbnb, and the gradual ban on renting the most energy-intensive accommodation.

In this case, "the owners rather want to sell than to do the work", notes Marc Oppenheim.

The state makes a belt

State spending on housing is falling year after year. The share of GDP devoted to it was 1,5% of GDP in 2021, a figure which has never been so low, denounced the Abbé Pierre Foundation in its last annual report.

For 2024, Bercy warned that housing would be in particular demand for savings, while hinting at the end of the Pinel tax niche, support for new construction.