The new era of wholesale electricity markets: low prices, but with high hourly volatility

Prices were particularly driven down in the afternoons (peak PV production), and also by three windy episodes which stimulated wind production.

Prices still high in the morning and evening

Electricity prices remain marked by strong hourly tensions. In September, the daily spread between the minimum and maximum prices reached €80/MWh. Since the beginning of the year, the spread has stood at €96/MWh, i.e. +31% compared to 2024 and four times the 2019 level (€24/MWh). This is an underlying trend, a consequence of the growing share of intermittent renewable energies in the French and European electricity mix.

The spreads are expected to increase in the coming months: the winter season, which is particularly sensitive to temperature variations, systematically generates strong price peaks linked to the thermal sensitivity of French electricity consumption.

A growing impact of the “consumption profile”

The final price of electricity for consumers consists of two dimensions. The average price, which is effectively hedged through the purchase of forward products on the markets (for example, the CAL 2026 baseload is currently trading at €57/MWh). The consumption profile, which reflects the gap between the purchased coverage and actual consumption. A "favorable" profile corresponds to higher consumption at night or in the middle of the afternoon. An "unfavorable" profile is characterized by increased consumption in the morning and evening, during peak tariff hours.

For Jean-Yves Stephan, CEO & co-founder of Storio Energy: "As markets anticipate low average prices, hourly price volatility is becoming an increasingly decisive factor in the final cost of electricity. Controlling the "risk profile" is becoming strategic. The development of flexibility solutions, particularly battery storage, opens the way to transforming this risk into an opportunity: smoothing consumption, capturing off-peak hours, and reducing exposure to price peaks."

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