The role of China will have been essential for the development of solar energy in the world, by bringing down the cost of panels by 80% in ten years, thanks to a very proactive industrial policy, underlines the Agency in an unpublished report. on photovoltaic supply chains.
“But the importance of this concentration creates challenges” and “vulnerability”, underlined the director of the agency, Fatih Birol, to the press.
While over the past ten years factories have left Japan and the United States, and the EU has given up, China has taken over, in terms of investment and innovation, to the point of representing today more than 80% market share.
And for key elements such as polysilicon, this share should increase to 95% in view of the known factory projects, according to the report.
Besides China, Southeast Asia (Vietnam, Malaysia) is also a major producer.
Thus over the past five years, the EU has imported 84% of its photovoltaic modules, the United States 77%, India 75%.
"Such a level of concentration on any supply chain would represent a significant vulnerability, and solar photovoltaic is no exception to the rule," says Mr. Birol, for whom "the magic word is +diversification+ ", a source of security of supply and jobs.
"Anything can happen, a fire, a natural disaster...then it's a problem," says the economist.
For the IEA, the observation also applies to China itself, where the province of Xinjiang concentrates 40% of the world production of polysilicon.
To reach carbon neutrality by mid-century, the world will have to install four times more solar capacity each year by 2030 than today, or twice as many factories, according to the IEA. This would generate half a million sustainable jobs within 10 years.
But this will "not come by itself", warns the agency: it will take the will and creativity - fiscal or otherwise - of the States to support the sector facing Asia, competitive in terms of labor costs or energy.
The IEA also observes that many countries and players are once again interested in this subject, after a year 2021 marked by a general rise in prices and supply difficulties which have increased the price of panels. about 20% last year.