COP28's goal of tripling renewable energy is only achievable if we urgently correct our global trajectory

While it is technically possible and economically viable to triple electricity production capacity from renewable sources by 2030, this requires determination, political will and large-scale investment. .

The publication Tracking COP28 outcomes: Tripling renewable power capacity by 2030 shows that 2023 set a new record in the deployment of renewable energy, adding some 473 gigawatts (GW) to the global energy mix. Despite this, this report from the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) concludes that tripling renewable energy production capacity will require removing the systemic and structural obstacles that hinder the energy transition.

Evolving strategies, geopolitical shifts and falling costs have all played a role in the rapid expansion of renewable energy in markets around the world. However, if their production capacity is to be tripled, concerted efforts will need to be made to improve infrastructure, policies and workforce skills, through increased funding and closer international cooperation, as underlines IRENA in its document “Prospects for global energy transitions”, presented today as part of the Berlin Dialogue on Energy Transitions.

By 2030, it will be necessary to install each year, on average, nearly 1.100 GW of renewable energy capacity, more than double the record set in 2023. Annual investments in energy production from renewable sources must increase from 570 billion USD in 2023 to 1.550 billion USD on average between 2024 and 2030.

For Francesco La Camera, Director General of IRENA: “In the wake of the historic consensus on tripling renewable energy reached in the UAE at COP28, these capacity additions, while setting a new record, clearly indicate that achieving the target is far from be guaranteed. As a depository agency, IRENA monitors progress annually through key indicators. Our data confirms that progress remains insufficient and that the energy transition is not on the right track. We urgently need to shift away from fossil fuels to redress the trajectory and keep the goal of tripling renewable energy within reach. »

While achieving the tripling objective is far from assured, since it would be necessary to deploy 7,2 terawatts (TW) of electricity from renewable sources to achieve the 11 TW required by 2030, current projections indicate clearly that without urgent political intervention, this figure will remain out of reach. G20 countries, for example, must increase their renewable capacity from less than 3 TW in 2022 to 9,4 TW by 2030, representing more than 80% of the global total.

An intensification of investments in infrastructure and the operation of systems (electricity networks, storage), a review of policies and regulations (design of the electricity market and rationalization of authorizations), measures to strengthen supply chains supply and improve the required skills, as well as a substantial increase in investment (including public funds, with the help of international collaboration) are imperative.

Compared to their considerable renewable energy potential, developing countries have proportionately received very low levels of investment. Although investments related to the energy transition have reached a record, with more than USD 2 trillion in 2023, emerging markets and developing economies represent just over half of global investments. 120 developing countries have attracted only 15% of global investment in renewable energy. And sub-Saharan Africa received less than 1,5%, even though it is home to the largest proportion of populations deprived of energy.

In contrast, fossil fuels received USD 1,3 trillion in subsidies in 2022, equivalent to the annual investment needed in renewable energy generation capacity to meet the tripling target by 2030. A key aspect of IRENA's 1,5°C Scenario is that increasing the use of renewable energy must be accompanied by a reduction in dependence on fossil fuels. And these two aspects are lagging behind. G20 members alone have shelled out a record $1,4 trillion in public funds to support fossil fuels in 2022, which goes directly against the COP28 commitment to abandon this source of energy.

Strengthening international cooperation will be essential to guarantee financial flows to the countries of the South and respect the tripling objective. The fact that sub-Saharan African countries face some of the highest financing costs in the world highlights the need for strengthened international collaboration, notably involving multilateral development banks and expanding the role of public finance.

Strategic use of public finances is essential to attract large-scale investments and ensure an inclusive energy transition with socio-economic benefits for all. To achieve this, structural reforms are necessary, particularly within multilateral financing mechanisms, to effectively support the energy transition in developing countries.

Read Tracking COP28 outcomes: Tripling renewable power capacity by 2030

Read Outlook for global energy transitions 2023: the path to 1,5°C

Illustrative image of the article via Depositphotos.com.