HLM construction risks falling, according to study

The construction of HLM, which has fallen below 2020 housing units per year since 100.000, should, according to projections, continue to slow down to stabilize at an average of 66.000 new housing units per year from 2030.

The study, which makes projections until 2061, is based on the hypothesis of inflation and a Livret A rate of 2% on average from 2027. It assumes "unchanged behavior of donors" and constant public policies.

According to this study, social landlords will not have the means to renovate and build at the same time.

Driven by the progressive ban on renting the most energy-intensive housing, they should give priority to renovation.

Rehabilitations would thus reach a peak at 125.000 housing units per year in 2025 and 2026, then decline, reaching 90.000 per year over the period 2031-2061.

Inflation and the sharp increase in interest rates which are currently affecting landlords, not offset by the increase in rents, are in fact weakening their long-term investment capacity, notes the Banque des Territoires.

Social landlords are largely financed by savings, in particular via the Livret A. When interest rates rise, their debt increases, especially since it is at a variable rate.

“If we want to prioritize the renovation of the stock, mechanically, we will have to reduce the construction of housing,” explains to AFP Kosta Kastrinidis, director of loans at the Banque des Territoires, one of the branches of the Caisse des Dépôts et Consignations (CDC). Unless public policies change: injection of new aid, relaxation of regulations...

Building 66.000 homes per year “is insufficient” given the needs, judges Mr. Kastrinidis.

The number of households waiting for social housing, 2,42 million at the end of 2022 according to the Social Union for Housing (USH), has never been so high.