The challenge of rebuilding the thousands of burned homes in Los Angeles

"The rebuilding process is going to be very difficult," said Jim Tobin, president of the National Association of Home Builders. "And it's going to take time because a fire is very unique: it's a total loss" of buildings, unlike a flood or a hurricane.

According to him, even surviving elements such as foundations, chimneys or stone or concrete structures will have to be evacuated because "the fire greatly deteriorates these materials", not to mention the large quantities of water and flame retardants spilled.

Before any construction can begin, the land must be cleaned up by companies that specialize in toxic waste, says Mary Comerio, a professor of architecture at the University of California, Berkeley, who is an expert in urban reconstruction after disasters.

In Paradise, where 18.000 structures including 11.000 homes were destroyed by a fire in November 2018, this clearing and decontamination phase took nine months, according to Colette Curtis, director of reconstruction for this Californian city.

Only 10% of the houses and about 500 buildings (shops, businesses), including the town hall, have survived. The first building permit dates from March 2019, the first house was completed in July of that year and currently 400 houses are under construction.

"It will probably take another ten years for a complete reconstruction," she emphasizes.

In Los Angeles, it could be faster given the financial comfort of residents of Pacific Palisades and Malibu, allowing them not to wait for compensation from their insurer, possible federal aid or to negotiate a new mortgage.

Three to five years

But simply obtaining a building permit can take nine to twelve months, experts say, estimating the typical process for finding a habitable house at between three and five years.

The public authorities must also clean up and rebuild the road, health and energy networks, and rebuild public infrastructure (schools, hospitals, libraries).

Typically, the federal government pays 75 percent of the cost, but Comerio points out that President Joe Biden has decided to cover 100 percent of the cost of these fires. But will the new Trump administration follow suit?

Regulations have evolved significantly over the decades, with stricter and often more costly safety and environmental standards.

California Governor Gavin Newsom moved quickly to speed up the process, easing some zoning restrictions and limiting price gouging.

Because this disaster occurs during a shortage of labor in the construction industry but also of construction materials, likely to worsen with the customs duties imposed on Saturday by Donald Trump on China and Canada.

The Association of Construction Workers (ABC) estimates the current net deficit at nearly 430.000 in construction, and anticipates 500.000 in 2026.

New uncompromising regulations

"As in any major urban disaster, there will be a significant internal migration of workers," predicts Mary Comerio, citing the sector's comfortable salaries.

"It's quite classic (...) and it leads to a very good local economic boom in the short term" because these workers have to find housing, food and consumption, she adds.

Major DIY chains Home Depot and Lowe's, which supply both consumers and businesses and did not respond to AFP's requests for comment, are likely to struggle to cope with "very high demand over a short period," notes Neil Saunders, director at GlobalData.

According to him, stores selling household appliances, furniture and decoration should also see strong demand "because people have to rebuild their entire house."

But not just anyhow, warns Colette Curtis.

In Paradise, where 85 people died, the new local regulations are strict: walls, roofs and windows must be fire-resistant, nothing flammable within 1,50 metres of the house, selective vegetation. Power lines are buried.

"Don't lose hope. It seems insurmountable now but keep going, things will get better," she said to the Los Angeles victims.