"This is a figure that is beyond our expectations," Economy Minister Bruno Le Maire told AFP a few minutes after the publication of the figure by INSEE on Friday, calling it an "exceptional result" .
While gross domestic product (GDP) is only 0,1% lower than in the fourth quarter of 2019, the French economy "is returning to its pre-crisis level", according to the National Institute of Statistics.
"The objective we had set for ourselves was to return to this level at best by the end of 2021 or perhaps the beginning of 2022," Bruno Le Maire recalled. By comparison, Germany or Italy have not yet completely returned to their pre-pandemic levels.
The minister thanked "all the French who have participated in this growth with their consumption, all the entrepreneurs who have invested, who have resumed exporting, all the employees who have returned to work after this crisis".
This is the highest growth since the third quarter of 1968, apart from the rebound in summer 2020 (+ 18%) following the first confinement, good news for Emmanuel Macron six months before the presidential election, him which has been playing the card of economic competence since the beginning of the crisis. A fortiori with the decline in unemployment.
The growth estimate for the second quarter is also revised up from 1,1% to 1,3%, reported Insee. In the first quarter, it was 0,1%.
Even if the economy stagnated in the last quarter of the year, growth over the year would therefore be at least 6,6%, explained to AFP Charlotte de Montpellier, economist of the bank ING ... therefore largely above the forecasts of the government and INSEE, which were 6,25%.
With the reopening of sectors related to leisure and tourism, household consumption spending has accelerated significantly, gaining 5% over one quarter, said the Institute.
"We have an economic policy which protected the remuneration of employees during the crisis, it favored consumption", underlined Bruno Le Maire who explained that the French had started to spend part of the 160 billion euros accumulated during the health crisis.
"The health pass probably played favorably, people felt secure when they left," said Philippe Waechter, economist for asset manager Ostrum.
Inflationary environment
The economy was driven by the reopening of services, with hotel and restaurant business jumping 58,9% over the quarter.
In contrast, the production of manufactured goods remains 6% below its pre-crisis level.
"If manufacturing production is slowing down, it is due to a shortage of materials and also a shortage of labor," explains Bruno Le Maire.
“When you look at construction, there is no wood, no steel, no aluminum,” he added.
In the third quarter, the contribution of foreign trade to growth was also positive by 0,6 percentage point of GDP, exports accelerating by 2,3% while imports remained almost stable.
But this trend could be reversed when the French industry, a big importer of equipment, will resume importing more, explained to AFP Selin Ozyurt, economist of the credit insurer Euler Hermes.
The rebound in activity also lowered the number of unemployed by 5,5% over the quarter, while many sectors are experiencing recruitment difficulties.
The improvement in employment could alleviate the fears weighing on purchasing power, even if the latter has not fallen with the crisis and has increased by 8% since the start of the five-year term, according to the government.
The labor shortage is indeed increasing the bargaining power of employees and should lead to wage increases of 1,8% to 2% this year and 2,5% in 2022, according to Selin Ozyurt, who sees s '' permanently install a "more inflationary environment" with around 2% price increases.
In October, the consumer price index rose 2,6% over one year, after 2,2% in September.