Suspension of the unemployment insurance reform: what now?

Why was it suspended?

On the evening of the first round, Sunday, Prime Minister Gabriel Attal decided to "suspend the implementation of the unemployment insurance reform", described as "indispensable" in mid-June by the President of the Republic Emmanuel Macron.

The reform, which provided for a new tightening of the compensation rules on December 1, is not buried but could "be the subject of adjustments, of discussions between republican forces", according to Mr. Attal's entourage .

This decision, hailed on the left as in the RN, was presented as a "first act" of the Prime Minister "in the spirit of future majorities of projects and ideas", at the end of the legislative elections.

The CFDT considers that the extension of the current rules amounts to an "abandonment" of an "unjust reform, which aimed at enormous savings made at the expense of job seekers alone", according to a press release.

For Michel Beaugas (FO), by suspending, "they are giving a helping hand to the Renaissance deputies who will be in the second round". But "the string is a little big", because if there is a majority for the President of the Republic, the reform will pass. “The pure and simple repeal of the decree would have been simpler,” he said.

“It’s a bad reform. It should have been canceled, period,” agrees Cyril Chabanier (CFTC).

What immediate consequences?

To allow the unemployed to continue to receive compensation, the government published a “joining decree” on Monday which extends the current rules until July 31.

Why only extend for a month? This is undoubtedly linked "to some serious tensions within the government", believes Denis Gravouil, the CGT negotiator on unemployment insurance. He notes in particular that Bruno Le Maire clings "like a mussel to a rock" to this decree", while the Minister of the Economy reaffirmed on Monday his conviction that it was necessary to "continue the reform".

The one-month joining decree, “it’s ridiculous,” reacted François Hommeril of the CFE-CGC. “We will be in the middle of the Olympic Games! (...) That says a lot about the unpreparedness and amateurism of this affair,” he believes.

What possible outcomes?

At a minimum, "there will be an extension (of current conditions, Editor's note) between August 1 and November 30 because for operational reasons, France Travail is not in a position to change the rules before December 1", observes Denis Gravouil.

“The big question is what happens from December 1? (...) There is a sword of Damocles hanging over the heads of the unemployed,” he said.

“For us, this requires reopening a negotiation with a joining decree which maintains rights until the end of the year,” according to the CGT negotiator.

“A new government can ask us to reopen a negotiation” on the basis of a new “framework letter”, notes Michel Beaugas. But it takes time, so it will be necessary to “further extend the joining decree”, even if legally, “it has been a bit shaky for a while”.

According to him, “we are leaving the 2,5 million job seekers who are compensated in uncertainty”.

“What we could imagine being done by the end of July, in one month, is an action plan” to reopen negotiations between social partners in September, says Eric Chevée, of the Confederation of SMEs.

For Medef this reform "was necessary" and "whatever happens and in one way or another, we will have to come back to it", its negotiator Hubert Mongon told AFP.

What if the RN has an absolute majority?

The National Rally (RN) is committed to returning to this reform. If he has an absolute majority on Sunday evening, he will have the power to change the rules as he wishes.

“The social partners will have to negotiate and make proposals,” outgoing RN deputy Jean-Philippe Tanguy told AFP on Monday.

However, from the RN, "we have not heard of a project on unemployment insurance, so we do not know", notes Michel Beaugas for FO.

“We cannot trust them given that each time they voted against the unemployed, (for) all the toughening measures which led to the 2023 decree”, the previous reform, notes Denis Gravouil.