Stop misconceptions: No, it's not the great sale of real estate prices and thermal sieves

Moreover, as Guy Hiccups had noted in 2022, the share of thermal colanders put on sale remains minor, with the exception of Paris. Deciphering national and regional trends.

Market reality: +4,5% on prices/m2 in January, +14% in properties for sale

The Guy Hoquet barometer, which analyzes more than 3 million properties per year for sale in the old sector, reports at the start of the year a positive trend at the national level, both in prices and in the stock of goods. marketed...

For Séverine Amate, spokesperson for Guy Hoquet l'Immobilier: "With an increase of +4,5% in prices/m2 and a supply of properties up by 14%, sellers do not yet seem to want to land their prices, which could explain why a market reversal is not not noticeable at the moment. »

Nonetheless, there is reason to believe that a slowdown in the pace of price increases is underway. In January 2022, the Guy Hoquet price barometer announced a rise in prices per m2 in the old buildings of +7% against 4,5% a year later.

Another observation to be taken into account at the regional level, at the start of the year, 4 of the 13 regions are registering declining prices/m2. A trend to follow, which could concern others in the coming weeks.

For Severine Amate: “If the sellers have not yet integrated a slowdown or even a reversal in terms of prices, the buyers, for their part, seem more inclined to negotiate, betting a little hastily on a surge in the number of energy sieves. »

The big sellout? No...no price drop and steady trading rates

The second signal of the relative strength of the market in January, the overall maintenance of trading margins. Indeed, the upward trend in prices on the old market has not yet generated additional trading, if we look at the average trading rate within the Guy Hoquet network: 4,61% in January 2023, versus 4,74% in January 2022 on a national average.

For Séverine Amate, spokesperson for Guy Hoquet l'Immobilier: "The maintenance of the negotiation margins is explained first of all by the ability of the professionals in the field of the Guy Hoquet network to make estimates at the right price, thanks to the training, expertise and experience that they put at the service of the sellers who trust them.”

Occitania stands out particularly with a margin of negotiation much lower than the average of the other regions (2,79%). This is in particular because certain flagship cities recorded almost non-existent discussions on the price in January, such as in Carcassonne, Narbonne and Cahors.

The regions which record the "highest" negotiation margins in January are generally those whose supply was particularly high throughout 2022 according to the Guy Hoquet barometer, such as New Aquitaine, Burgundy, Pays de la Loire and Normandy. The volume effect will have given buyers a slight edge in these sectors. In the PACA region, on the other hand, supply was down in 2022 and prices continued to change. A situation that did not prevent buyers from negotiating.

Energy strainers do not flood the market

On the thermal sieve front (housing classified as DPE F and G), the trend for the month of January remains proportional to that observed in 2022: 8,1% of old properties put up for sale are concerned on average over the the entire territory (reminder: 8% on average over the year 2022).

For Séverine AMATE: “The weight of colanders on sale at the start of the year is slightly higher than that observed in January 2022 (7,7% of the offer), but nothing indicates for the moment a massive sale of this type. property by owners. Direct consequence: their prices remain relatively stable. »

The only exception to the rule: Paris remains the city most affected by this phenomenon with 23% of F and G properties marketed in January 2023 versus 19,5% in January 2022, i.e. an increase of +3.5 points.

Salespeople who remain at the helm... but for how long?

If the sellers seem to maintain a slight position of strength in January, through the increase in prices and the maintenance of the negotiation margins, it is however not a question of ignoring the general context. The year 2023 began against a background of declining purchasing power, pension reform, strikes, a tense international environment, difficulties in accessing mortgages despite the monthly revision of the rate of wear and tear, etc. the beginnings of a change of mindset are beginning to make headway in the daily life of the French.

For Stéphane Fritz, president of Guy Hoquet l'Immobilier: “Our territorial coverage and the proximity of the network to our fellow citizens allows us to take the pulse of society in real time. If the objective indicators that we measure thanks to the Guy Hiccups barometer do not detect any major change, they probably do not yet reflect the reality experienced by the French in their real estate life projects, and about which we remain particularly vigilant. »