Social Security Budget: White Smoke Between MPs and Senators but Black Clouds for Barnier

This version of the Social Security Financing Bill (PLFSS) will be submitted one last time to the deputies and senators, but it is above all the last hurdle in the Assembly which could give vertigo to the executive and beyond.

Virtually condemned to use his first 49.3 in the lower house on Monday and to face a motion of censure in response during the week, Michel Barnier warned against "the storm" that a fall of the government would trigger, particularly on the financial markets.

"The financial crisis has already begun," RN MP Jean-Philippe Tanguy retorted sharply, citing the "spread", the gap between French 10-year sovereign rates and those of Germany, considered a safe haven in Europe, at its highest level since 2012.

Marine Le Pen has asked for "clear and firm commitments on the abandonment of the 3 billion increase in the price of electricity (in the State budget), the abandonment of the delisting of new medicines and the deindexation of pensions".

If they insist that the decision has not been made, the RN deputies, - who will meet on Thursday at 14:00 p.m. to discuss the PLFSS -, could bring down the government by voting on a motion with the left. And choose to do so on this Social Security budget without waiting for the final stretch of the State budget around December 18-20.

Failing to convince the RN, the government pointed out an "unheard of responsibility" of the socialists, according to spokesperson Maud Bregeon. "We will never accept blackmail," retorted the head of PS senators Patrick Kanner received at Matignon.

"Transitional budget"

In the meantime, seven deputies and seven senators meeting in a joint committee (CMP), with a small majority supporting the government, decided on a version of the text which would be sent back to both chambers (Monday in the Assembly and Thursday in the Senate).

In particular, they found a compromise on a reduction in employer exemptions, amounting to asking for an effort of 1,6 billion from companies, with however a vote against from the Macronist group Ensemble pour la République on this article in particular, scalded by what it sees as a renunciation of seven years of supply-side policy.

The left proposed returning to a senatorial version costing 3 billion. "Only the left voted for it," lamented the Insoumis Hadrien Clouet.

"The government has created the conditions for its own censorship" was the broader view of Jérôme Guedj (PS). The environmentalists denounced the text as "insincere and unfair".

The CMP validated a compromise on pensions, to index them to half of inflation from January 1 (+0,8%), with a supplement on July 1 for pensioners below 1.500 euros gross with a view to reaching +1,6%.

The parliamentarians also removed a senatorial measure, providing for seven hours of unpaid work for workers, which was supposed to bring in revenue from the Social Affairs Committee in the Assembly. Frédéric Valletoux mentioned a deficit "of around 17 billion".

Among the compensation measures, the rapporteurs have planned a reduction of 600 million in health insurance expenditure in 2025, denounced by the left. The general rapporteur in the Assembly Yannick Neuder (LR) defended the copy but also raised the hypothesis of a corrective budget in 2025.

"It is a transitional budget", "neither ambitious nor glorious", commented Mr. Valletoux on Wednesday morning. Stéphanie Rist (EPR) spoke of a budget that "seems balanced and responsible".