Social Security Budget: Hot Points of Upcoming Discussions

Based on the version adopted by the Senate at the end of November, the executive has already announced the abandonment or revision of certain measures. The left would like to obtain additional concessions.

Pensions: 3 billion lost

It is too late to under-index the revaluation of retirement pensions in relation to inflation, as the former government of Michel Barnier wanted to do in its draft social security budget, hoping to save 3 billion euros.

In the absence of adoption of the text, pensions were automatically increased on January 1, at the level of inflation over the last twelve months (2,2%).

No “delisting” of consultations

Although the measure was not written in black and white in the text, the executive planned in the autumn to reduce by 5 percentage points the share reimbursed by Health Insurance on medical consultations and medication, to transfer this burden to supplementary health insurance and thus save 900 million euros in 2025.

The regulatory measure "will not be reintroduced," decided the new Prime Minister François Bayrou.

According to a parliamentary source, the government could seek to save money on medicines in other ways, but "it remains very unclear".

Health Minister Catherine Vautrin said she was considering taxing supplementary health insurance more to compensate for the increase in their 2025 contributions, which are considered too high.

Health care spending on the rise

The Social Security Financing Bill (PLFSS) adopted by the Senate planned to contain the increase in health expenditure – the national health insurance expenditure target (Ondam) – to +2,6% in 2025, to reach 264,2 billion euros.

But François Bayrou wants to revise the target to +3,3%, to give hospitals some breathing space in particular. An extension of more than a billion euros. In the Assembly, the left still hopes to free up additional resources, underlines the socialist deputy Jérôme Guedj.

Employer contributions: what landing?

To involve businesses in the effort to redress their accounts, the former Barnier government initially wanted to reduce the overall amount (around 4 billion) of employer contribution exemptions by 80 billion euros.

The Senate had reduced this amount to 3 billion, before the Macronist camp, very opposed to this measure, managed in the joint committee (CMP) to reduce the objective to 1,6 billion. The left, on the contrary, would like this measure to bring in more. The debates promise to be stormy.

7 hours of unpaid work

The Senate text provided for the establishment of a new "solidarity day" dedicated to financing measures in favor of the elderly, in the form of a package of seven additional hours worked annually without pay, for each employee.

Criticized, the measure was abandoned in the CMP, then relaunched by the minister Catherine Vautrin. In the Assembly, it has little chance of passing: the left as well as the LR rapporteur Thibault Bazin have tabled amendments for deletion.

The expected gain over a full year was around 2,5 billion euros, reduced to 1,8 billion following the delay in budget debates, according to a government estimate.

Behavioral taxes

To allow the Social Security to collect new revenue, the senators had planned to increase the "soda tax" (intended to limit the quantity of sugar), taxes on tobacco, and to strengthen the taxation of online games and lotteries.

The executive has so far estimated these measures at 300 million euros.

Capping of daily allowances

The government plans to lower the ceiling on daily allowances paid by health insurance in the event of work stoppage. The allowance (50% of the daily wage) would be capped at 1,4 times the minimum wage, and not 1,8 times as it is today, for an estimated gain of 400 million euros.

A deficit of between 23 and 25 billion

The initial PLFSS of the Barnier government predicted a deficit of 16 billion euros, which returned to around 15 billion in the version voted by the Senate.

But with the various measures abandoned, the delay with the censorship and the deterioration of macroeconomic forecasts, particularly growth, the government is now predicting, according to concordant sources, a deficit of around 24 billion euros, which would increase to 30 billion without a vote on the PLFSS.