RTE refines energy transition scenarios by 2035

Objective: massive electrification of uses to move away from fossil fuels and comply with the European "Fit for 55" program which reinforces the CO2 emissions reduction targets of European countries: -55% in 2030 compared to 1990, instead -40% previously.

By 2035, RTE is counting on an annual electricity consumption of between 580 and 640 TWh, with production of between 640 and 700 TWh, in the most favorable scenario, known as "A". In 2022, the French consumed 460 TWh of electricity.

Initially, while waiting for the arrival of new reactors after 2035, RTE is counting on sobriety and an acceleration in the deployment of renewable energies: by 2035 we must "aim for at least an annual renewable electricity production of 270 TWh (compared to around 120 TWh today) and if possible 320 TWh", estimates RTE.

Concerning nuclear power, RTE is counting, in a conservative hypothesis, on an average annual production of 360 TWh by 2035, by maximizing the current fleet of reactors. After a high-risk winter of 2022/2023 and a dark year marked by historically low electricity production, in particular due to a highly unavailable nuclear fleet, RTE is counting on an improvement in security of supply this winter.

But, warns RTE, "it now seems likely that the transition will unfold in a more complex macroeconomic and geopolitical climate than that of the 2000s and 2010s: high interest rates, weak growth, public financing capacities under strain, international relations "degraded", he lists as so many obstacles.

While the government is working on the French strategy for energy and climate (SFEC), this new situation has pushed RTE to work on less favorable scenarios than "A", which allows it to be at the meeting. 2030 and to meet France's electrification and reindustrialization objectives, Xavier Piechaczyk, chairman of the RTE board of directors, explained to AFP.

Thus, a "B" scenario, in which France is late "for its own reasons" and finally, a "C" scenario, known as "thwarted globalization", where there are "other delays, which are linked to the outside world,” he explained.

Demand flexibility

This scenario C would result in the short term by "lower electricity consumption", "an increase in the cost of energy transition equipment (+15 to 20% for ground-mounted photovoltaic investments for example)", and a " increase in financing costs with major consequences on the economy of the energy transition", according to the report.

In this difficult scenario, "by combining increased investment costs and the cost of capital, the full cost of renewable energies is higher by 30 to 60%, or even up to 100% for sectors under pressure such as wind power in sea".

“On the other hand, in the long term, there are several ways to get out” of this scenario, reassured Thomas Veyrenc, executive director of RTE’s strategy, foresight and evaluation division.

Several levers are put forward by RTE, first and foremost “relocating part of the value chain of energy transition equipment to secure supplies”, even if it means assuming higher investment costs.

In all scenarios, the rapid increase in electricity consumption represents a challenge for France's energy sovereignty, particularly in the cold season, when more French people will heat with electricity: "the level of peak consumption winter weather will increase.

Hence the need to put in place a real "plan" in three parts to develop the flexibility of demand", according to Mr. Veyrenc, who summarizes it as follows: "deploy equipment" (enclosures, home automation, connected terminals, installations connected in buildings), “price incentives” and “being able to control its effect on the system”.