Barometer of rental tension in the 4th quarter of 2024

Information to remember:

• 13,5 applications per ad in the 4th quarter, 20,5% less than the previous quarter: The 4th quarter is historically one of the least favorable periods for rentals, as is the 2nd quarter, and this year is no exception. With an average of 13,5 applications per ad (compared to 17 in the 3rd quarter, 12,5 in the 2nd quarter and 17 in the 1st quarter), rental demand is down at the end of the year.
• Bordeaux joins Paris on the podium of cities with the highest rental demand: Rental pressure in Bordeaux increased sharply in 2024. The average number of applications per listing fell from 8 in the first quarter to 7,5 in the second, before jumping to 17 in the third and reaching a peak of 27 in the fourth quarter. Bordeaux thus joins Paris on the podium of cities with the highest demand at the end of 2024.
• 2024, a year of falling demand? Rather than talking about an overall drop in rental demand in 2024, we must note a shift in the market. Many large cities such as Paris, Rennes, Lille, and Nantes have seen their attractiveness decline in favor of outlying towns. This trend, which continued in the fourth quarter, is benefiting towns such as Clichy and Tourcoing, where the number of applications per listing is increasing.

The most tense major cities in the 4th quarter of 2024

With a score of 9/10, Paris and Bordeaux top the ranking of the most tense cities in France. Lyon, Rennes, and Montpellier, meanwhile, achieve a score of 8/10, with slightly higher tension in Lyon, which sees its properties sell out in 10 days with 14,5 candidates per ad (compared to 12 in Rennes and 11 in Montpellier).

Paris and Île-de-France - Tension score 9/10 Paris and 8/10 Île-de-France: The capital remains under pressure despite the decline in demand

Paris remains one of the tightest rental markets, with 44 applications per listing, although this represents a 46% decrease compared to last year and a decrease of 16 applicants compared to the previous quarter. Listings remain visible for an average of 11 days. This decline is due to reduced rental mobility and a decrease in the number of students among applicants.

On the outskirts, the inner suburbs are emerging as a source of rental tension, driven by towns like Clichy (+30%, with 64 applications per ad) and Rosny-sous-Bois (+132%, with 18 applications), boosted by structuring projects such as the extension of metro line 11. The outer suburbs are also seeing some towns emerge: Argenteuil, for example, has reached a record time of 9 days to rent a property, confirming the shift in interest from the capital to its surrounding areas.

Lyon and its region - Tension score 7/10: Attractiveness weakens in the face of high rents

In Lyon, the number of applications per advertisement halved this quarter, reaching 14,5. This decline is part of a typical seasonal trend at the end of the year. Rental pressure nevertheless remains high, despite a 20% drop compared to the fourth quarter of 2023 and a median posting time extended by two days.

In the rest of the region, applications per advertisement recorded a decrease of 43,5% compared to 2023. This decline reflects a decline in Lyon's attractiveness, also observed in previous quarters, which can be attributed to a rise in rents and increased competition with other cities.

Marseille and its region - Tension score 6/10 Marseille and 8/10 Bouches-du-Rhône: The Phocaean City charms thirty-somethings

While the overall trend is towards decline in most major French cities, this is not the case in Marseille and its surrounding areas.

The Marseille region is notable for rising rental pressures (8 versus 7 in the previous quarter). In Marseille, the number of applications per advertisement exceeds the levels of 2022 (+7%) and 2023 (+34%). Working people now dominate, representing 56% of applicants, compared to 47% last year.

This dynamism is explained by a combination of factors: a booming local economy, a competitive cost of living, a Mediterranean climate, and more affordable housing. Thirty-somethings, seeking quality of life and larger spaces, are increasingly considering Marseille as an ideal alternative. While they represented only 12% of applicants in 2023, this figure will rise to 19% by the end of 2024.

Bordeaux – Tension score 9/10: Tension that is accelerating

Bordeaux emerged this quarter as one of the cities with the highest rental pressure, achieving a score of 9, equivalent to Paris's. The average number of applications per listing jumped 79% year-on-year to 27, compared to 17 in the previous quarter, which was typically a more demanding period. The median ad publication time, at 10 days, even surpasses that of Paris.

This attractiveness is explained by an attractive living environment, lower costs than Paris or Lyon, and the presence of prestigious universities and institutions such as Sciences Po Bordeaux. Furthermore, the Parcoursup and Mon Master programs may have played a role in the redistribution of students across the region, contributing to a notable increase in student applications in the city, which represent 27% of candidates (compared to 16% last year), boosting a rental market already under pressure.

Rennes – Tension score 7/10: A market in search of balance

The Rennes rental market appears to be stabilizing after the post-Covid frenzy. With 12 applications per listing, a 35% decrease compared to last year, Rennes is losing its appeal, but remains a tight market with a median posting time of 11 days, below the national average of 15 days.

Montpellier - Tension score 7/10: A market that is easing

With a score of 7/10, Montpellier continues to rank among the major cities experiencing high levels of tension, however, the trend seems to be towards easing. The average number of applications per advert has fallen by 14% in one year and by more than 55% in two years, from 25 in 2022 to just 11 at the end of 2024. The median advert publication time, however, remains relatively low (11 days), a sign that demand, although slowing, remains dynamic. This decline in rental tension is accompanied by a broader phenomenon in Montpellier: the volume of properties for sale also declined in 2024, suggesting a generally more cautious real estate market.

Lille – Tension score 6/10: The periphery takes over the tension

In Lille, the number of applications per ad has fallen by 59% since the end of 2023, with a current average of 12,5 applicants per ad. Despite this decline, the market remains attractive thanks to its strategic location between Paris and Brussels. Properties rent in an average of eight days, a shorter timeframe than in other cities.

However, the tension is shifting to nearby towns, such as Tourcoing, where applications have increased by 221%, a sign of a shift in demand to outlying areas.

Nice – Tension score 6/10: Tension curbed by the cost of living

In Nice, although the market remains tight with 18 applications per ad, demand has decreased by 26% year-on-year. This decline is explained by a high cost of living, which is pushing some candidates to turn to less expensive alternatives, despite the quality of life the city offers.

Nantes – Tension score 6/10: A gradual but lasting relaxation

In Nantes, the rental market is beginning to stabilize after the collapse in applications in the third quarter. The fourth quarter saw a slight 4% increase in the number of applications compared to the last two years, with an average of nine applications per listing.

However, listings remain online for an average of 17 days, two days longer than the national average, signaling a gradual easing of the market. This trend reflects a shift between supply and demand in a historically attractive city.

Nancy – Tension Score 4/10: The best opportunity for student tenants?

With only three applications per ad and a median posting time of 3 days, Nancy remains one of the least crowded major cities in France. This situation represents an opportunity for students, who benefit from less competition and attractive rents near the University of Lorraine.

Summary of rental tension scores in Q3 2024 in the 15 largest metropolises in France

Methodology

Manda's study is based on the analysis of 3.200 internal advertisements published between Q4 2023 and Q4 2024, as well as more than 80.000 external advertisements from platforms such as Seloger and Leboncoin to calculate the median publication time.

The rental tension score is a key indicator for assessing the competitiveness of the rental market in a region. This score, on a scale of 1 to 10, is calculated based on two main factors: the number of applications per ad and the median time of publication of ads.

The more applications an ad receives and the shorter the time it remains online, the higher the demand and the market is considered tight. A high score (close to 10) indicates a market where properties are rented quickly, often accompanied by strong competition between candidates, indicating significant rental tension.

Illustrative image of the article via Depositphotos.com.