"I think that (...) we have already entered a slight recession. All the latest public or economic agency estimates, half-heartedly, say so," Mr. Martin regretted on Sunday in the JDD, citing the "66.000 bankruptcies this year," or foreign investors who wanted to invest in France and who have for the moment suspended their projects.
When it is not the large French companies which are looking abroad out of exasperation with administrative procedures, like the bosses of TotalEnergies and EDF, Patrick Pouyanné and Luc Rémont.
At the congress of the French Electricity Union (UFE) in Paris on Tuesday, the former said he was ready to "make trade-offs towards countries that are more welcoming", such as Germany, while the latter considered that it is "hell to invest in France" because of the regulations, which are not about to ease in the absence of a government.
"Stability and vision"
The latest opinion surveys, both among households and businesses, show a loss of confidence, which is not conducive to purchases, investments, hiring, and therefore growth.
While the draft finance bills (PLF) and the Social Security financing bill (PLFSS) provided for an increase in social security contributions and corporate tax for companies - which will therefore escape them at least temporarily thanks to the censure - this has nevertheless provoked "disappointment" or "anger" among bosses.
Because above all they have "an urgent need for stability and vision" for the country, added Dominique Carlac'h, member of the executive council of Medef, on Radio Classique on Monday.
"We are, if you will, in the beginning of a recession," notes Charlotte de Montpellier, economist at ING, who predicts a GDP decline of 0,1% in the fourth quarter, after an increase of +0,4% in the third, largely linked to the effect of the Olympic and Paralympic Games.
Ms. de Montpellier foresees zero growth, or 0,1%, in the first quarter of 2025. Since a recession is technically defined as two consecutive quarters of falling GDP, "I would rather describe the current situation as stagnation," she told AFP.
"Catastrophic image"
The President of the Court of Auditors, Pierre Moscovici, declared for his part, Sunday on LCI, "not having the feeling that we are in a phase of recession", even if "the slope is a little more severe". He rather fears "a form of economic sinking" of the country.
The same opinion is shared by the Caisse des Dépôts. "We do not anticipate a recession next year," its CEO Eric Lombard said on BFM Business on Tuesday, judging that "the economy is holding up well," despite "sectors in difficulty" and delayed hiring.
In its monthly economic survey, the Banque de France stressed on Tuesday that the stability of GDP that it expects in the fourth quarter is based in particular on the negative mechanical effect of a backlash to the solid growth (+0,4%) of the summer, now that the Olympic and Paralympic Games are over.
But apart from this effect, economic activity grew by 0,2%, which is honourable.
The markets are still far from panicking about France's situation and strangling it with a surge in interest rates that would further worsen a public deficit expected to exceed 6% of GDP this year.
For the whole of 2024, almost all institutes, including INSEE and the Banque de France, calculate a GDP growth of 1,1%, in line with the government's forecast. Predicting the same growth in 2025, Bercy seems a little optimistic, however. Asterès estimates it at 0,8%, ING at 0,6%. But here again, we are far from an annual recession.
Today, according to Asterès chief economist Sylvain Bersinger, the situation is simply "not healthy, with no government or budget", and "the image we are giving off is catastrophic". "We would quickly need a government that has clear ideas and a program", according to him.
Illustrative image of the article via Depositphotos.com.