Real estate: the threshold of €4.000/m² crossed for the first time in Hauts-de-France, in a context of unprecedented crisis

The trend announced last year, predicting a reduced volume of activity for 2023, has been confirmed: “the main characteristics of our market have not evolved favorably during the year: falling material costs, land always “rare and expensive” and interest rates maintained at levels considered too high for our buyers. At the same time, demand is still high and the rental market is under very high tension,” analyzes Jean-Michel Sede, president of Cecim Nord.

The average price per m² of collective housing has reached the €4.000 mark for the first time (€4.044 including tax/m²). This represents an increase of 14% since 2020 (+27,5% over the last 10 years).

• On the scale of the Lille SCOT, this is the 2nd consecutive year above the €4.000 mark (€4.208 including tax / m²), an increase of 3,6% (+30% in 10 years). ). The three areas which saw their average price increase the most are Armentiérois – Vallée de la Lys[1] (+12%; €3.918 / m²), Tourquennois – Vallée de la Lys[2] (+7%; 3.680 € / m²), and the northern crown[3] (+7%; €4.792 / m²).
• The sale price on the Amiens market is increasing a little more than the Hauts-de-France average (+4,5% or €3.854 including tax/m²).
• In Dunkirk, the collective sale price increases from €3.941 to €4.036 / m² (+2,4%). A development marked by the reindustrialization of the territory which suggests a need for housing with the creation of 16.000 jobs by 2030, but the prospects for sales to individuals are still hampered by access to loans and a weakened remaining life.

A collapse in the volume of reservations of 34%, and of almost 53% for those at retail. Furthermore, the share of private investors is contracting (35% vs. 57% in 2022).

• For the SCOT of Lille (collective & individual group), sales fell by 30%, net reservations by 55%, the available offer is 25% higher. Despite this context, the investor share remains stable (60% compared to 63% in 2023).
• The Amiens market is collapsing just as much, with a 68% decline in net reservations. However, it is still driven by private investment which represents 68% of sales.
• In Dunkirk, the trend is the opposite since the share of net reservations increases by 14%.

The distribution of reservations in the Hauts-de-France territory remains identical to that of 2023 with a slight transfer between Oise and Somme. The Nord department dominates with 69%, followed by Pas-de-Calais (16%). The share of Lille SCOT in the North is down 6% (75% compared to 81%), undoubtedly linked to the transfer of reservations from the metropolis to medium-sized towns.

While the SCOT of Lille was the second French territory, excluding Ile-de-France, in terms of volume of net sales of collective housing in 2022, it lost one place to the benefit of Grand Genevois. Lyon remains in first position. Despite the increase in the sale price per m², the SCOT of Lille is not among the most expensive French territories; it is Grand Annecy which dominates the ranking with an average price per m² greater than €6.000, ahead of Grand Genevois, Métropole Lyon. The Lille SCOT ranks 7th out of 10 territories observed[4].

[1] Bois-Grenier, Erquinghem Lys, Armentières, la Chapelle d'Armentières, Houplines, Frelinghien, Warneton, Deûlemont, Quesnoy-sur-Deûle.
[2] Comines, Wervicq-sud, Bousbecque, Halluin, Linselles, Bondues, Roncq, Neuville-en-Ferrain, Mouvaux, Tourcoing.
[3] Capinghem, Prémesques, Pérenchies, Lompret, Lambersart, Verlinghem, Marquette-lez-Lille, Saint-André-lez-Lille, Wambrechies, Marcq-en-Barœul, la Madeleine.
[4] Métropole Lyon, Scot de Lille, Eurométropole Strasbourg, Grand Genevois, Sillon Lorrain, Grand Annecy, Grenoble Métropole, Grand Dijon, Grand Chambéry, CA du Grand Besançon.