2022
The beginning of the return to normal
After a year 2021 with nearly one million two hundred thousand real estate transactions, the year 2022, still considered exceptional, marks the start of a rebalancing of the real estate market. Indeed, for 2022, the number of units sold in terms of volume is estimated at just over one million units, a potential drop of between 12% and 16% compared to 2021.
A year 2022 marked by an increase
In 2022, the price increase will reach 6% over the year. Houses continue to outperform, reaching an increase of 8% on average and apartments of 5% on average. According to the networks of the Digit Re group, the average price of a transaction in France is around €250.000.
However, the end of 2022 is marked by a slowdown in price increases. The big cities are even seeing their prices drop, as in Paris, to the benefit of peripheral cities which are attracting more and more people.
The desire for stone still present
Despite the current situation which is not conducive to the purchase of real estate, the proportion of French people involved in a real estate project is still stable, since 16% of them say they have a real estate project in the next 12 months*.
For Olivier Colcombet, President of Digit Re and spokesperson for Drimki: “There is a lot of traffic on the Drimki platform, which supports a certain appetite of the French for the purchase and/or sale of real estate. »
If the increase in credit rates and the rate of wear and tear has a strong impact on the French, they have modified the profile of buyers by causing first-time buyers to fall (33% in November 2022 compared to 44% in March 2022) and by increasing the number of investors (24%; +9 points in November 2022 vs. March 2022).
For Olivier Colcombet, President of Digit Re and spokesperson for Drimki: "It is not uncommon during periods of crisis to see investors reduce their exposure to the stock market to turn to real estate, which always remains a profitable investment, which may thus explain the change in the profiles of buyers at the end of the year. year 2022. »
2023
The continuity of the rebalancing
For Olivier Colombet: “The year 2023 should follow the trend of the last three rolling months, i.e. a slight decrease in terms of volumes. Which ultimately is rather consistent: more than 3 million properties have changed hands in the last three years out of around 37 million homes in France, or around 10% of homes that have changed owners. This observation thus further supports the scarcity of supply because generally, people do not sell their apartment or house every two years. »
Energy renovation, the challenge
Since the end of August 2022, the owners of housing classified F and G according to the DPE can no longer increase the rents and since January 1, 2023, the rental of the worst colanders classified G (which consume more than 450 kilowatt hours per square meter per year) is prohibited. The latter will be extended to all G dwellings in 2025, then to F in 2028.
Faced with these new regulations, many owners, especially those whose rent received is an income, will have an interest in selling their property because the energy renovation process is often long (several months without a tenant), complex and expensive. Conversely, if we compare with the 2007 crisis, French savings are higher. It can thus be seen that the owners are not in a hurry to sell and therefore in the need to lower their price quickly.
The hardness of financing
The issue of financing and banking rules, combined with economic conditions and therefore household confidence, will be the major brakes on the French people's desire to buy. In November 2022, the average interest rate on mortgages stood at 2,25%** compared to 1,06% a year earlier. This is the highest rate for 7 years and nothing suggests, to date, that this trend will be reversed. Regarding the wear rate, the latter has increased to 3,57% for fixed rate loans of 20 years and more since January 2023.
For Olivier Colombet: “Finally, for 2023, we are not afraid of the storm, whether in terms of volumes or prices, but the visibility over the year is uncertain. On the one hand, we have the scarcity of supply which tends to tighten the market, and on the buyer side, we have the difficult financial conditions which are a brake. Wouldn't a door be opened for the regulator so that it supports the projects of the French in this tense period? »
*Study carried out by BVA for DRIMKI, from November 16 to 17, 2022 on a sample of 925 people aged 25 and over, from an overall sample of 1000 people representative of the French population aged 18 and over.
**Credit Logement/CSA observatory, November 2022