Public accounts: government forecasts examined by a "circle of forecasters"

"This event is part of a process of transparency and enrichment of discussions on macroeconomic and public finance forecasts," the Ministry of the Economy said in a press release.

"The discussions focused on the global macroeconomic context, economic and public finance forecasts for 2025, as well as the outlook for 2026," he added.

In addition to the administrations involved in drawing up the budgets, representatives of the Bank of France, INSEE, CAE (Council for Economic Analysis), IPP (Institute for Public Policy) and OFCE (French Economic Observatory) took part, as well as economists from international banks specialising in Treasury securities, according to the same source.

The "circle of economists" is expected to meet twice a year, with the next meeting scheduled for September, before the presentation of the 2026 finance bill, the Ministry of Public Accounts told AFP.

"The circle of forecasters meeting today is a guarantee of transparency and accountability in the preparation of our budget with all stakeholders," said Economy Minister Eric Lombard, quoted in the press release.

On March 3, the government presented an "action plan" to improve the management of public finances, providing for the creation of this circle responsible for examining the relevance of forecast assumptions and an "alert committee" involving Parliament.

Following an investigation into the reasons for the budgetary overruns, the National Assembly's Finance Committee made recommendations in April to prevent them from recurring: improving the quality of forecasts, and strengthening the management of public finances and the provision of information to parliamentarians.

She also mentioned the "disruption of Bercy's forecasting models" in the context of an inflationary crisis, which resulted in revenues lower than expected by more than 60 billion euros in 2023 and 2024.

"I welcome this shared desire to improve forecast governance. The question is whether this movement goes far enough," commented Pierre Moscovici, First President of the Court of Auditors and President of the High Council of Public Finances (HCFP), during a conference on Tuesday.

"The independence of forecasts in France must be better guaranteed, in a systemic manner," he added, calling for a stronger role for the HCFP.

"I'm not saying here, above all, that everything was predictable (...) but there is still a lot of voluntarism, even a certain hubris in the forecasts," he said, criticizing forecasts that he considers "too optimistic."

The government plans to reduce the deficit to 5,4% of GDP in 2025 with expected growth of 0,7%, and to return to below 3% in 2029.

"The forecast for 2025 appears achievable, but uncertainties are high and compliance with the deficit target is still far from certain," Pierre Moscovici stressed.

Illustrative image of the article via Depositphotos.com.