Pensions: a "blocked" situation like never since 1995, according to an expert

Question: how would you describe the situation?

Reply : "Completely problematic. No real possibility of dissolution, nor of coalition, nor of referendum. A blockage on the side of the legal age of departure on which the government does not want to back down, while the unions demand that it back down An uncertainty all the same on a hardening of the conflict in a peripheral way, either with what we see on the side of the extensions of violent demonstrations in the evening or blockages of fuel, electricity...

Added to this is the great unknown of youth. If it moves more by the end of the week, within ten days, it could take on another dimension.

Q: How can things evolve?

A: What I fear, and I'm not the only one, is that with the outbursts of violence, we come to a tragic accident. We all remember the Malik Oussekine affair in 1986 (editor's note: 22-year-old student died under the blows of the police on the sidelines of a student demonstration).

We are in a situation which certainly, and I am weighing my words, has never been so blocked as today, even though we are at the 9th major social movement of this type since 1995, including the 4th or 5th on retirees.

Even in 1968, when the movement was on a completely different scale – twelve million employees on strike, thousands of companies and administrations occupied by employees, a student movement, violence and excesses... -, it there was no blockage.

There were first two organizations, the CFDT and the CGT, which were much more powerful than today, a very mobilized and united right behind De Gaulle and a government which constantly maintained relations with the trade unions, which gave rise to the famous Grenelle agreements.

Q: What are the next steps?

A: Today, we have the impression that faced with Macron, all the doors have closed. And suddenly, we are wisely awaiting the decision of the Constitutional Council within three weeks.

Unless there is a huge surprise, where the power would suspend the reform, for three weeks we risk having what we know. With each time a rise in tension and violence.

If the violence continues, what about the union front? The CGT congress this week will also play a role for the aftermath. It presents genuine trade union alternatives within the union itself.

On the one hand, you have Marie Buisson, supported by Philippe Martinez, who wants to be very open to societal problems, including ecology. On the other, large federations like energy, which are today at the forefront of the conflict and the most opposed to Philippe Martinez (note: pushing for the candidacy of Céline Verzeletti).

I can't make a prediction, we're not at the PMU. But on one side or the other, it will play a lot - not so much on the immediate social movement - but for the future.