Mortgage rates expected to rise in the second quarter

Michel Mouillart, the economics professor in charge of presenting this quarterly study, mentioned "a slight rise" in mortgage rates between April and June, to 3,25%, compared to 3,16% in the first quarter.

This would be the first increase after more than a year of continuous decline.

"This little late-spring boost is a bit of a logical response" from banking institutions' risk management teams, explained Mr. Mouillart, who are sensitive to a more uncertain economic environment, particularly since the trade war unleashed by the Trump administration.

The latter participated in the rise in France's 10-year borrowing rates in March, to peaks not seen since 2011.

The banks, which are partly financed at this rate, therefore corrected the situation in April and increased their rates, several brokers have already reported since the beginning of the month.

"Faced with international tensions affecting financial markets, some banks are planning to increase their rates in April 2025," noted the broker Cafpi, for example.

The inflationary risk of the trade war also removes the prospect of a more significant drop in the European Central Bank's (ECB) key interest rates, another key element of bankers' financial balance, Mr. Mouillart analyzes.

The "small bump" in mortgage rates expected for the second quarter would be "ephemeral," he believes, before stabilizing around 3,05% at the end of the year and in 2026.

The rates announced by Crédit Logement exclude fees and insurance. Including all fees, they reached 3,98% for a term of twenty years or more in the first quarter of 2025, according to the Banque de France.

At the same time, real estate prices are falling only slightly, complicating the economic equation for potential property buyers.

The volume of new mortgage loans fell last year to its lowest point since 2014, according to the Banque de France.

Illustrative image of the article via Depositphotos.com.