French growth "modest" in the first half according to INSEE

As in the fourth quarter of 2022, France's gross domestic product (GDP) would register a timid increase of 0,1% in the first quarter of this year - less than the level of 0,2% initially anticipated due to a production industrial activity weaker than expected in January.

It would be followed in the second quarter by an increase of 0,2%.

A year after the outbreak of the war in Ukraine and three years after the start of the first anti-Covid confinement, the economic indicators "testify both to the imprint left by the shocks but also to the relative resistance of the French economy. “, said Julien Pouget, head of the economics department of the statistics institute, during a press conference.

While corporate investment is expected to hold up, household consumption, the main driver of activity, should only record a “weak rebound” in QXNUMX. It would then grow "very moderately" over the following three months.

It would remain affected by inflation not seen since the 1980s, which is cutting into purchasing power.

Inflation reached 6,3% year on year in February, now driven by soaring food prices rather than energy prices.

Due to the lull on the energy front, the rise in prices should fall back to 5,4% in June.

But there would be no slowdown for food, whose prices would continue to accelerate to reach 15,4% over one year by this deadline (against 14,8% in February).

Thus, core inflation, which excludes the most volatile elements such as energy and fresh produce and makes it possible to identify an underlying trend in price trends, should still be on the rise, at 6,4 % in June (against 6,1% in February).