However, the year 2022 is ending in a sham way, with very good levels of activity recorded in the 1st half of the year which mask a slowdown in the second part of the year. Pierre-Louis Dumont, Executive Director Agence I&L France and François-Régis de Causans, Investment Director I&L take stock of the 4th quarter of 2022 and plan for the start of 2023.
Signs of a slowdown in the user market
Take-up on the French logistics real estate market (> 5.000 m²) reached more than 4 M m² over the whole of 2022 (- 14% over one year and + 11% compared to the ten-year average ). After a dynamic first half in the continuity of a record year in 1, the increase in uncertainties in the face of a shaky economic situation and the lack of warehouse availability in certain markets tempered the volumes transacted in the second half of the year. “User activity experienced its weakest performance since 2021 in the second half of the year, with less than 2015 million m² taken up, including 1,9 m² in the 900.000th quarter of 4,” comments Pierre-Louis Dumont, Executive Director of Agence I&L France. The major logistics companies and food retail players continued to take positions in France throughout the year, remaining the market's main support. E-commerce specialists, for their part, show a sharp decline in 2022, reflecting cyclical logistics overcapacity.
With the exception of Hauts-de-France, the decline in available supply is widespread and continues to curb activity on the deep markets of the Dorsale, such as in Ile-de-France and Rhône-Alpes. While the resupply of the market with new supply remains essential, the land restraint policy and the macroeconomic situation limit development potential. These pressures on supply are driving rental values considerably upwards in the tightest sectors.
For Pierre-Louis Dumont: “Shortages of logistical land and labor should help shift demand from prime markets to strategic secondary locations that could eventually become prime areas. »
Beyond land issues, inflationary pressures and the energy crisis will most certainly weigh on performance in the 1st half of 2023. meet the new user specifications in terms of energy performance and CSR compliance,” concludes Pierre-Louis Dumont.
I&L investment: the beginning of a rebalancing towards the world after
Investment in industrial and logistics real estate amounts to more than €6,4 billion in 2022.
For François-Régis de Causans, I&L Investment Director: “While annual volumes were mainly boosted by the disposal of large portfolios, activity also benefited from the dynamism of last-mile logistics and the breakthrough of ESG criteria in I&L investment strategies. »
However, the signals of a slowdown in activity initiated in the 3rd quarter were confirmed in the 4th quarter, reflecting the uncertainties of this changing market. "Against a backdrop of geopolitical tensions, inflationary pressures and the general tightening of monetary policies, questions dominate among investors who are continuing to reassess real estate risk" specifies François-Régis de Causans.
While some investors will essentially wait for the revaluation to occur in the coming months, others will pursue their strategy of disposal and/or acquisition, with adjusted returns commensurate with their expectations of risk compensation and the cost of the money. In addition to the support offered by the upward trend in rents, the opportunities for value creation will persist in this market, which is recognized for its excellent structural fundamentals and its counter-cyclical dimension.