Savings, a decisive growth reserve for France in 2022

The "Covid savings" accumulated in 2020-2021 should represent around 160 billion euros, estimates the French Observatory of Economic Conditions in its Outlook for 2021 and 2022 published on Wednesday.

"Although unevenly distributed, the mobilization of this savings towards consumption", which represents more than 50% of French GDP, "or on the contrary its hoarding for precautionary reasons will be decisive for the growth scenario of 2022".

The OFCE has adopted two scenarios for the evolution of savings: in the first, households destock 20% of their Covid savings (ie 28 billion euros); in the second, savings are not spent.

GDP growth would be 4,3% in the latter case. But in the hypothesis of partial dissaving, GDP growth would be 6% in 2022, two points higher than the government's forecast.

Still according to this scenario, the French economy should recover its pre-crisis level of GDP per capita "in the first quarter of 2022", that is to say two years after the onset of the crisis, "and even end the year 2022 a bit early. -above 2% of a pre-crisis level ", underlines the OFCE.

The public institute favors the first scenario because of the nature of the crisis, which caused this "forced savings" and not "desired" which is "mobilizable" while the government does not seem to be considering a future tax hike. .

On Tuesday, the Governor of the Banque de France François Villeroy de Galhau estimated that "confidence" would be the key factor for this Covid savings, estimated at 110 billion in 2020 and 55 billion in 2021, "to turn into spending and support more direct activity "in 2022.