Improvement in the existing real estate market in the first quarter

Up 0,5% year-on-year in the first quarter, after six consecutive quarters of decline, and up 1% compared to the previous quarter, sales prices for existing homes have regained strength at the start of the year, according to the Notaires-INSEE benchmark index published on Tuesday.

Since October, sales have also halted the downward trend that began in spring 2022. At the end of March 2025, the number of transactions was estimated at 880.000 over the last twelve months, compared to 845.000 in December 2024 and 832.000 in September 2024.

"Clearness and caution," commented Elodie Frémont, president of the real estate statistics commission of the notaries of Greater Paris, during a press conference.

Notaries are particularly concerned that this positive trend may be the result of households anticipating increases in transfer taxes on real estate transactions, which will be applied on April 1st in many departments.

In detail, prices of existing housing are up 0,5% in the first quarter over one year, after -2,1% in the fourth quarter of 2024 and -3,9% in the third quarter of 2024.

Prices increased more for apartments (+0,7%) than for houses (+0,3%).

In Île-de-France, house and apartment prices rebounded by +0,9% in the first quarter after nine quarters of decline, but fell over one year at a less sustained rate: -0,3% in the first quarter of 2025, after -3,7% in the fourth quarter of 2024 and -5,3% in the third quarter of 2024.

Prices of existing apartments increased more in Paris (+1,1%) than in the inner suburbs (+0,5%) and the outer suburbs (+0,4%) compared to the previous quarter.

Sales volumes rebounded strongly in the Ile-de-France region, with a 21% increase compared to the first quarter of 1, when the level had been historically low.

Geopolitical context

In Paris, prices remained stable at around 9.500 euros per m2 in the first quarter and are expected to reach 9.750 euros in July, according to notaries in Greater Paris.

Prices per square meter range from 2 euros in the 7.530th arrondissement to 13.270 euros in the XNUMXth.

In the provinces, the prices of existing housing confirm the national trend, with a 1% increase recorded in the first quarter after two quarters of near stability.

The trend is also upward over one year, with +0,7% recorded in the first quarter compared to -1,7% in the fourth quarter of 2024.

"One might believe and hope that the market has entered a new dynamic after two particularly difficult years, but this is not certain," observed Elodie Frémont.

Notaries fear that a reversal of the economic context linked to the geopolitical context could call into question the initial positive developments, notably the fall in interest rates.

In the Ile-de-France region, prices could also see "annual increases of between 1% and 5% by July for all markets" and cause "new tensions on the solvency" of households.

An analysis shared by Loïc Cantin, president of the National Real Estate Federation (Fnaim), who points out that the fall in transaction volumes and the fall in prices has been halted "since July 1, 2024," coinciding "with six successive cuts in the ECB rate."

"It is this combination of falling interest rates and stabilizing or even falling prices that has made it possible to restore the purchasing power that buyers had lost," he explains.

However, he said that we cannot speak of a price increase, but rather of "catching up".

The lights are green, but one swallow does not make a summer, he warns. "We have fueled growth in volumes and prices against a backdrop of falling rates. Now rates need to stabilize for an active and real recovery," he emphasizes.

Illustrative image of the article via Depositphotos.com.